User Tag List

First 2634353637 Last

Results 351 to 360 of 370

  1. #351
    Senior Member cafe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    MBTI
    INFJ
    Enneagram
    9w1
    Socionics
    INFj None
    Posts
    9,827

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Fecal McAngry View Post
    Well, obviously the current system benefits the select few enormously. For example, if I were to forge ten million dollars worth of perfect copies of $100 bills and give them to you, and you were to buy stuff with them, invest some of them intelligently, and so on, you would benefit tremendously. In time, this counterfeiting would have a predictably inflationary effect and hurt society as a whole, but there would be time lag, and the "culprit" would not be easily identified or blamed. It's always the people who get the forged money first who benefit the most, and there always is a time lag between the initial crime and the impact of that crime...
    I suppose, but the thing is, in an economy based on consumerism, when you take away the ability to consume (which is based on discretionary income) you hurt your own long term ability to sell stuff to them and in turn, hurt your ability to make money.

    You can only get away with the counterfeit thing if you only want to make your money and skip town, so to speak. If you want to keep playing the game in a particular system, you can't keep counterfeiting.

    Or in other terms, a parasite that destroys its host, must either die along with its host or find a new host. Generally it is in the best interest of the parasite to be a little less greedy so they don't have to spend the energy to find a new host or take the risk of destroying themselves along with their host.
    “There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.”
    ~ John Rogers

  2. #352
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    976

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by onemoretime View Post
    An economy that based itself almost entirely on industrial manufacturing collapsed when the country moved away from industrial manufacturing.

    That's not unexpected. That's pretty obvious.
    My perception, which may not be accurate, is that Americans, writ large, generally believe we are simply in another recession, similar to the recessions of the early 90s or early 80s, albeit somewhat more severe--and that a significant recovery is just around the corner.

    "I'm sorry, little Bobby, but Grandma doesn't have a cold this time. She has cancer of the everything."

  3. #353
    Senior Member cafe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    MBTI
    INFJ
    Enneagram
    9w1
    Socionics
    INFj None
    Posts
    9,827

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Fecal McAngry View Post
    My perception, which may not be accurate, is that Americans, writ large, generally believe we are simply in another recession, similar to the recessions of the early 90s or early 80s, albeit somewhat more severe--and that a significant recovery is just around the corner.

    "I'm sorry, little Bobby, but Grandma doesn't have a cold this time. She has cancer of the everything."
    I don't know too many people irl who believe that this is just a blip. It's been a long time coming and most people (in my neck of the socio-eco woods) know it. There isn't any reason for things to get better. Obviously people hope for the best and do as well as they can, but it's not like most people have a whole lot of say so, personally, it what is ultimately going to happen even to themselves.
    “There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.”
    ~ John Rogers

  4. #354
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    976

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by cafe View Post
    You can only get away with the counterfeit thing if you only want to make your money and skip town, so to speak. If you want to keep playing the game in a particular system, you can't keep counterfeiting.
    You can do it for a surprisingly long time if people have no clue that you are to blame for the resulting problems.

    I recently saw some true crime murder mystery show on a wife who systematically poisoned her husband with arsenic--all the while ministering to him when he became ill. He died still believing his wife was his angel.

  5. #355
    Senior Member Tiltyred's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    MBTI
    INFP
    Enneagram
    468 sx/sp
    Socionics
    EII None
    Posts
    4,383

    Default

    Any major dude with half a heart surely will tell you my friend
    Any minor world that breaks apart falls together again ...

    I've already made back the significant money I lost in my 401k. The economy is picking up.

  6. #356
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    976

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by cafe View Post
    I don't know too many people irl who believe that this is just a blip. It's been a long time coming and most people (in my neck of the socio-eco woods) know it. There isn't any reason for things to get better. Obviously people hope for the best and do as well as they can, but it's not like most people have a whole lot of say so, personally, it what is ultimately going to happen even to themselves.
    You hang out with peeps a bit brighter than Obama & congress, for starters...

  7. #357
    Senior Member Tiltyred's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    MBTI
    INFP
    Enneagram
    468 sx/sp
    Socionics
    EII None
    Posts
    4,383

    Default

    I'm quite pleased with Obama. At least he can talk. He's not any stupider than anybody else we've had for President.

  8. #358
    Senior Member cafe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    MBTI
    INFJ
    Enneagram
    9w1
    Socionics
    INFj None
    Posts
    9,827

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Fecal McAngry View Post
    You hang out with peeps a bit brighter than Obama & congress, for starters...
    No, I hang out with people who have been downsized multiple times which is exactly why I voted for Obama. He may be full of crap, me may be incompetent, but at least he had the sense to hire a speech writer who knew what to say to people like me and doesn't think that poor are the people who make less than two million dollars a year like McCain. I fear to think how much worse things would be if he'd gotten into office.

    Apparently we have plenty of money to kill people overseas, but not enough to help people who have been screwed over by decades of poor regulation.
    “There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.”
    ~ John Rogers

  9. #359
    Dreaming the life onemoretime's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    MBTI
    3h50
    Socionics
    ILE
    Posts
    4,460

    Default

    So...

    TPTB start encouraging the middle and upper-middle class to dump all this fake cash into their homes. However, this led to two things that fed upon each other to create a vicious circle. First was the tendency of any booming market toward overproduction, because people for some reason still believe Say's law was anything more than the ramblings of a drunken madman, and the natural human tendency to fear missing out on an ongoing opportunity. Second was the ongoing issue of the lack of security surrounding the debt-dollars inflating this boom. The investment banks, constantly borrowing from themselves, started creating more and more complex financial instruments to hedge against the risk. You can see where this is going.

    So you have this massive price inflation in housing occurring, because everyone's shoving debt-dollars into their houses; however, real inflation is close to nil, because while everyone wants a McMansion, its inherent value is equivalent to a nice ranch house - a place for a family to live. Housing has no value as an asset other than that. Some smart people realized this, and start to bet against housing and the lending institutions that fueled the craze.

    The lending institutions, for their own part, do what greedy bastards (the only people who thrive in this climate, everyone with a conscience got out early or got eviscerated by the wolves) have a tendency to do in this circumstances - start making really dumb, really risky moves, like making huge unsecured loans to people they're sure won't pay them back. Normally, a smart bank manager slaps a loan officer across the mouth when they pull something stupid like this. However, because the whole concept of collateralization and securitization had gone out the door in favor of financial instruments, people thought the risky bet had been sufficiently hedged.

    Along with this, people decided to get generally fraudulent with the whole thing, such as cutting up packages of subprime loans, reassembling them over vast geographic areas, and rating them AAA, because hey, the entire country can't go to shit at one time, right? The problem is that the original bonds these subprime packages came from, as very risky BBB- loans, had very low rates of default before the entire bond defaulted. Now, the AAA loans had a 30% default rate; however, even the good loans contained within these would evaporate when the subprime bond defaulted based on some other crappy loans.

    One of the financial instruments included within a subprime loan was an adjustable interest rate. The idea was that people would come in at the teaser rate, and then when it was up, come in and refinance. Of course, what they didn't realize was that A.) people didn't necessarily always act in their economic self-interest and B.) outside factors might require the tightening of credit. Both happened at once in 2007.

    ARMs start popping. People have to default on their loans. Banks had already engaged in massive loads of hedging that essentially made bets on each other's money. Reserves had been leveraged out to obscene ratios. The subprime packages start going tits-up, and start wrecking the AAA bonds which contained these. People start losing serious money.

    Meanwhile, housing hits the point where overcapacity is entirely ridiculous, and houses are outside the price range for practically any homeowner who isn't independently wealthy. Demand for housing plummets. Prices follow, which leads a whole lot of people deeply underwater on their mortgages. A default is by far the rational decision in this circumstance, and so many decide.

    This is where the computers inject themselves into the equation. The stocks many banks had used to raise capital for their leveraging were bought essentially with this loaned-out money. The leveraging fed into itself. However, with it simply being numbers on a screen, no one really knew what was good capital-fueled money, and bunk debt-fueled money. So banks were leveraging debt to accrue further debt.

    The great housing deflation, both in price deflation and real deflation from overcapacity, began the overall worse debt-deflation, because when those housing prices fell, that so-called money evaporated with it. Gone, never to return again. When the stock markets collapsed, and those hedges started to spring like mouse-traps upon one another, that debt-money evaporated with those defaults, too. One by one, the banks began to see that they had been insolvent for years, but through creative accounting, had hid this from themselves. And why wouldn't they? Who wants to hear that the good times everyone is having is completely fraudulent?

    Everyone thinks the Great Depression started with the crash of 1929, but in reality, this was the final paroxysm of the debt collapse - the commodity and other agricultural markets had already heavily deflated prior, but given that the news media was even more East Coast-centric then than it is today, these were seen as mere cyclical fluctuations. The opposite is true today, because the US is no longer a primarily agrarian nation - the first symptoms appeared in the financial markets.

    We're not done with this business until the debt clears out of the market, the false dollars evaporate (bringing massive deflation), and we can actually can assess what the US has as far as real, convertible assets, so we can use them as a base to create the expansion process once more. Until then, it's going to be years, if not decades, of fairly hard times economically.

    This is why we need to get over this all-consuming desire to make money and become materially rich - because for most of us, it's just not going to happen. For those people who do find it, rarely do they find satisfaction. Humans aren't designed to solely covet things - just enough to survive until reproduction. We are designed, however, to bond closely with important others in life. Becoming rich in people far outweighs the personal benefits becoming rich in things does.

    And that's what I've got to say on the subject.

  10. #360
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    MBTI
    ENTJ
    Enneagram
    3w4
    Posts
    6,276

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Fecal McAngry View Post
    My perception, which may not be accurate, is that Americans, writ large, generally believe we are simply in another recession, similar to the recessions of the early 90s or early 80s, albeit somewhat more severe--and that a significant recovery is just around the corner.
    The author of the article you linked is full of crap when he says that Detroit's problems go unnoticed. Everyone knows Detroit sucks, and it sucks for numerous reasons. Government mismanagement is just one of many. The entire rust belt suffers from the loss of manufacturing.

    I don't personally know a single person who thinks this economic downturn is just another recession. The only people I've seen with that opinion are the talking heads on television. When you misrepresent your opponent's position in a debate, that's called a straw man fallacy. You do that constantly, and I'm starting to wonder if you'll ever employ a different debate strategy.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

Similar Threads

  1. SCOTUS: Health Care Decision
    By Totenkindly in forum Politics, History, and Current Events
    Replies: 170
    Last Post: 07-03-2012, 09:44 PM
  2. Should the US move towards universal health care?
    By ajblaise in forum Politics, History, and Current Events
    Replies: 145
    Last Post: 12-30-2009, 04:41 PM
  3. US House + health care bill
    By Usehername in forum Politics, History, and Current Events
    Replies: 165
    Last Post: 11-15-2009, 04:23 PM
  4. Chuck Norris does not Approve of the Health Care Reform.
    By Gewitter27 in forum The Fluff Zone
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 09-30-2009, 03:45 PM
  5. Single Payor Health Care
    By INTJMom in forum Politics, History, and Current Events
    Replies: 48
    Last Post: 02-24-2008, 09:16 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO