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View Poll Results: Pick the option that fits the most, please...

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35. You may not vote on this poll
  • Believer / Politically Right / AGW is not proved

    5 14.29%
  • Unbeliever / Politically Right / AGW is not proved

    2 5.71%
  • Believer / Politically Left / AGW is not proved

    2 5.71%
  • Unbeliever / Politically Left / AGW is not proved

    3 8.57%
  • Believer / Politically Right / AGW likely

    1 2.86%
  • Unbeliever / Politically Right / AGW likely

    5 14.29%
  • Believer / Politically Left / AGW likely

    7 20.00%
  • Unbeliever / Politically Left / AGW likely

    10 28.57%
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  1. #21
    Gotta catch you all! Blackmail!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oberon View Post
    I predict the poll will show that the question of climate change is divided along the lines of political ideology, with the left-leaners in favor and the right-wingers opposed. Every discussion I have ever had on this topic has been highlighted by the righteous indignation of the True Believer.

    People have a great tendency take or leave AGW as an article of faith, which is entirely irrelevant to the matter at hand.
    I think you are secretly jealous of true Atheists like me, since you copy our rhetoric.
    It also means that you find our arguments more powerful... interesting paradox, isn't it?

    ---

    Anyway. I will make no prediction, I shall just observe.
    I think the result will be interesting once a few dozens of people would have voted. Even if some votes should be interpreted with a pinch of salt...
    "A man who only drinks water has a secret to hide from his fellow-men" -Baudelaire

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  2. #22
    Oberon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackmail! View Post
    I think you are secretly jealous of true Atheists like me, since you copy our rhetoric.
    It also means that you find our arguments more powerful... interesting paradox, isn't it?

    ---

    Anyway. I will make no prediction, I shall just observe.
    I think the result will be interesting when a few dozens of people would have voted. Even if some votes should be interpreted with a pinch of salt...
    I posted earlier before I voted. Now that I've voted and can see the results, I can see that my prediction has not been confirmed. Interesting.

    And incidentally, I do not consciously copy anyone's rhetorical style. Unless I tell you otherwise, what you're seeing here is my brain's native language. I suppose that begs the question of whether "your side" has influenced me without my knowledge. On the other hand, I think it at least as likely that the rhetoric of epistemology is not solely the province of the "enlightened left," much as you wish that were the case.

    In any event, I'm not going to spar for the sake of sparring. Later, then...

  3. #23
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Not voting because I don't feel informed enough to commit to a side and there are no appropriate options.

    - Believer
    - Leaning politically left
    - Undecided
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  4. #24
    Gotta catch you all! Blackmail!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    Not voting because I don't feel informed enough to commit to a side and there are no appropriate options.

    - Believer
    - Leaning politically left
    - Undecided
    I did my best, though...

    Try to think it's like MBTI. You're either E or I, not in the middle. You're either S or N, not in the middle... and so on...

    And remember it's a game: you won't be judged for it.

    You see: it's not that difficult.

    Should I have included a "neutral vote", we would have had:

    1/ 27 poll options instead of 8
    2/ A large majority that would probably have voted "in the middle", and thus would have turned the poll into an unintelligible mess, with no clear or visible trend.
    "A man who only drinks water has a secret to hide from his fellow-men" -Baudelaire

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  5. #25
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackmail! View Post
    I did my best, though...

    Try to think it's like MBTI. You're either E or I, not in the middle. You're either S or N, not in the middle... and so on...

    And remember it's a game: you won't be judged for it.

    You see: it's not that difficult.

    Should I have included a "neutral vote", we would have had:

    1/ 27 poll options instead of 8
    2/ A large majority that would probably have voted "in the middle", and thus would have turned the poll into an unintelligible mess, with no clear or visible trend.
    Your poll is fine; and of course you don't want to make the results too muddy.

    I just can't vote in it, because I'm not going to vote for or against something I don't know enough about. Other people with the same amount of information might feel comfortable enough to vote; I do not.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  6. #26
    Oberon
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    One thing I will observe about the poll is that your options on the likelihood of AGW are not mutually exclusive. "Likely" vs. "Not proved"? They're not opposites. AGW can certainly be both.

  7. #27
    Gotta catch you all! Blackmail!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oberon View Post
    One thing I will observe about the poll is that your options on the likelihood of AGW are not mutually exclusive. "Likely" vs. "Not proved"? They're not opposites. AGW can certainly be both.
    Once again, we'e not here to discuss (at least in this thread) whether AGW is real or not.
    As a scientist who have worked on that subject (although it was (1) on the relationship between palaeobotanics and palaeoclimatology, and (2) on the way several plant species colonize and adapt to new environments; and subsequently, how several of them move north), according to what I've seen, studied and noticed, I would say it is real. Empirical evidences are too numerous to continue denying them.

    But the truth is you can't follow me on that subject, because you lack specific scientific knowledge and proper epistemological training.

    As I noticed in earlier threads, Ergophobe and I could literaly drown you under dozens of scientific articles, you could not understand them. We were obviously wasting our time.

    ---

    So to say AGW is real or not would require either:

    a) a proper scientific background that sadly, most of us don't possess

    b) blind faith

    ---

    In the middle, you have something that phenomenologists called "common sense", and it explains why in the majority of industrialized countries, most people trust the consensus reached by 97% of the scientific community studying that specific field (climatology).

    Hence, I adapted my wordings to this reality.

    Unless you have been struck by a specific climatic event like the inhabitants of the Maldive islands, most people would either believe AGW has not been proven yet (you, for instance), or rather that it is very likely to occur.

    We're here to understand how they make their choice, and why.
    America is a very interesting country to study, since it is the only industrialized country with a significant proportion of people who deny AGW. Incidently, I should also mention it's the only industrialized country with such a powerful oil lobby, and a political system that allows those lobbies to reach a nationwide audience. nudge nudge...
    Hence it would make this poll more even, at least for your ideological side. You have a chance to make your case look less isolated, less odd, less extreme.

    Should I have published the same poll in a French scientific forum, well, the results would not probably have been as interesting as they could be here, due to an overwhelming imbalance. Guess why!
    "A man who only drinks water has a secret to hide from his fellow-men" -Baudelaire

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  8. #28
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oberon View Post
    One thing I will observe about the poll is that your options on the likelihood of AGW are not mutually exclusive. "Likely" vs. "Not proved"? They're not opposites. AGW can certainly be both.
    That's my issue; the evidence is not beyond a reasonable doubt, but the current preponderance of evidence indicates some kind of climate change in which human activities have some existent but indeterminate effect. The degree to which human agency is responsible and the theoretical extent of climate change is very unclear even in the context of a "preponderance of evidence" standard. Moreover, popular policies proposed to deal with the situation (and this is where my opinion is the most certain and strongly felt) would simply not work, and would most likely even make the problem (insofar as it exists) worse by forcing industries to move into countries which emit more greenhouse gasses per unit of production than the high-income countries. If the political right is too quick to discount (relative) scientific consensus regarding man-made climate change, the proposed policy arena is where the left either demonstrates their own tendencies toward faith-based politics or (as is the case for many of those on the far-left) to insert redistributive politics into an issue with reckless disregard for truth or consequences.

    Incidentally, I'm an unbeliever and on the political right (broadly speaking). My technical answer would be that AGW is "likely" since current evidence indicates that its more likely than not, but you can see how such an answer may leave a mistaken impression, so I decided not to vote.

  9. #29
    Gotta catch you all! Blackmail!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post

    Incidentally, I'm an unbeliever and on the political right (broadly speaking). My technical answer would be that AGW is "likely" since current evidence indicates that its more likely than not, but you can see how such an answer may leave a mistaken impression, so I decided not to vote.
    No no no...

    You should have clearly voted Unbeliever/Right/AGW likely, since we're not dealing here with the "popular policies proposed to deal with the situation" which seems your primary concern.

    It's a totally different issue. Do not make any confusion.

    ---

    As a matter of fact, I'd be greatly disappointed should you decide not to vote, because I already knew you had a more subtle position on AGW (with which it would be interesting to debate because you clearly separate Science from Politics), and I hoped it would bring some balance back if ever your conservative fellows were too eager to deny AGW without any further explanation. I had you in mind when I selected my poll options.
    "A man who only drinks water has a secret to hide from his fellow-men" -Baudelaire

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  10. #30
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    All right, I guess that since I've already explained my opinion, I'll go ahead and vote.

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