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  1. #1
    Administrator highlander's Avatar
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    Default What Is The Future Of The United States?

    I read earlier today that Americans are an optimistic and resilient bunch. We believe that economically we'll be better off in the future. What do you think?

    - The future role of the US in the world economy

    - Value of the dollar

    - Distance between haves and have nots

    - Globalization of the workforce

    - The service economy

    - The deficit

    What do you think it will be like in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? How will US citizens be impacted?

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    Artisan Conquerer Halla74's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    I read earlier today that Americans are an optimistic and resilient bunch. We believe that economically we'll be better off in the future. What do you think?
    Excellent post and set of questions. I am no expert, but I will relay relevant information I've learned in a few classes the past year and an opinion or two.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - The future role of the US in the world economy
    We will always have one of the world's strongest militaries, if not the strongest. Sure, China can tout alot of men, and alot of equipment, but they are not where we are yet.

    Also, people need to understand that having men and equipment is one thing, but that does not make it possible for China, or any other nation or group of nations for the matter, able to attack, invade, and occupy U.S. soil. Even if their ships ever got to the shores of California, once you get someplace it is necessary to sustain your equipment, ammunition, food, medical supplies, and care for/evacuate your wounded and slain men and women.

    Furthermore, an all out missile based attack for the purpose of destroying us als odestroys them in part. (1) They'll never collect on what we owe them. (2) They lose one of their biggest customers. (3) The rest of the world would be nervous, as they would feel they could be next, and there's a good chance that some type of retaliatory action would ensue, not to defend or avenge us, but to preserve themselves.

    Personally, I think China is well on its way to destroying itself. Rapid growth as they are experiencing is difficult to sustain in the long run. Just their need for energy is a risk, especially if they are consciously expanding at the rate they are. This is their era for blockbuster growth, and ours for recovery. But one day we will be recovered, and they will be in a recession, or at least a state of lessened stability; they will get a wake up call of some sort. They are lucky right now, but good luck doesn't last forever, especially with totalitarian governments at the helm of a nation.

    The biggest threat in this day and age is transanational terrorism. There is very little probability that we will see another full scale total war on land as occurred in WWI and WWII. It's too easy for a bunch of intelligent sociopaths to obtain simple precurosrs and slaughter the innocent or their political enemies. Why risk national stability when you can cause very similar stress and damage with a few well trained suicide bombers? Total war is hardly cost effective, and if you start that shit, you'd better be able to win it, because if you don't you are screwed. It's all or nothing.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - Value of the dollar
    Will continue to go down so long as China's currency is allowed to be pegged to it, that is for sure. Again, so long as a weak dollar makes the power elite wealthier, it shall remain so.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - Distance between haves and have nots
    It's the biggest gap in history right now, and it will continue to get worse. As long as the haves can rape the have nots, they will. Why does a dog lick his balls? Because he can.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - Globalization of the workforce
    As long as it is profitable for capitalists, it will occur. As long as national tax policy is friendly to it, it will occur. If your job does not entail hands on work on products or delivery of services with face-time with your company's clients, then your job is at risk for off-shoring.

    Ironically enough, foreign direct investment does not contribute significantly to stabilizing foreign nations. However, a 2% increase in that nation's GDP resulting from internal economic development can reduce the incidence of terrorist attacks by close to 25%. Internal economic development of neighboring countries also has a stabilizing effect in reducing political violence.

    FROM: Li, Quan & Schaub, Drew (2004, April). Economic Globalization and Transnational Terrorism: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 2, pp. 230-258. Sage Publications, Inc. Retrieved from JSTOR: An Error Occurred Setting Your User Cookie

    FACT: After the Enron/Tyco/Arthur Andersen scandals and pillaging of corporate pension funds, the writing is on the wall, that the only SECURE PENSIONS are from (1) the Federal Government, (2) State Governments, and (3) Local Governments, and (4) Public Universities. Any firm who can make its board of directors rich by going out of business and pillaging the company's assets is at risk for liquidation. If you don't admit that then you are smoking PCP.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - The service economy
    Humans have an inexhaustible demand for services, unlike profits which suffer from the law of diminishing returns with regard to additional esteem felt by the consumer per unit purchased. However, the service economy is limited by the decling average wealt hof the middle class, which is a constraint on its growth in some capacity, as the rich can buy a whole lot of services, but there are only so many of them.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - The deficit
    What deficit? As inflation continues to rise slowly upward it will be reduced to nothing in the long run, right Mr. Cheney? :rolli:

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    What do you think it will be like in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? How will US citizens be impacted?
    Higher taxes, less to show for it, greater stress, continued erosion of the family unit, decreased quality of living in increments as your scale of time progresses forward. Unless a significant majority of the population change thier lifestyles, and change who they are putting in office, and what is expected of them after they are in office, then the shit will continue hitting the fan.

    The white elephant has been in the room for many, many years. The system is broken. There is too much insider gaming going on by power elites.

    The average of level of eduucation in this nation is not where it should be, especially with regard to graduating students with transferable skills in the job market, let alone a strong enough background in science and mathematics to qualify our people for good paying jobs.

    That's all I've got for now.



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  3. #3
    Courage is immortality Valiant's Avatar
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    - The future role of the US in the world economy

    Removed from the balance within fifty years in some way or the other.
    Economic collapse and the biggest war we've seen so far.

    - Value of the dollar

    The dollar will be replaced entirely or worth a lot less.


    - Distance between haves and have nots

    There'll be a lot more "have nots", as the U.S will be a third world country.


    - Globalization of the workforce

    Once the U.S is poor again, global manufacturers will start building factories again and the cycle of economy is begun anew.


    - The service economy

    The service economy is a fucking joke invented by rich and spoiled countries.
    NO country survives for more than decades on air. Countries must produce.
    Know-how alone isn't going to save anyone except maybe Japan, and that just barely.

    - The deficit

    Well... Considering that the national debt as of now is almost as great as your GDP...
    As of December 2009, top holders of U.S Treasury Securities are:

    Holder Total
    Japan $768.8 billion
    China $755.4 billion
    United Kingdom $302.5 billion
    Oil Exporters $186.8 billion
    Caribbean $184.7 billion
    Brazil $160.6 billion
    United States Treasury security - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



    Well... It's an unstable mix, for sure.
    People have lost faith in the dollar, and are looking for options to invest in.
    If any of the major ones or even a small holder like my country Sweden with 18.3 Billion $ invested pulls out...
    It'll cause a panic to get rid of the stuff.
    That in turn may cause a war.


    What do you think it will be like in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? How will US citizens be impacted?

    5 Years
    Calm before the storm

    10 years
    Rising global tensions

    20 years
    Cold war equivalent

    30 years
    Complete economical collapse of the United States
    Possible mass effort to boost-start the economy with a World War.






    It's just a theory, and a loose one.
    But i've got a feeling things are about to get out of hand, and it's getting worse every day.

    Mightier than the tread of marching armies is the power of an idea whose time has come

  4. #4
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - The future role of the US in the world economy
    Will remain integral to the globe probably for at least a few decades to come, but actual influence will be declining in that time.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - Value of the dollar
    Will probably become unusually shitty somewhere in that time.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - Distance between haves and have nots
    Will expand like a son-of-a-bitch.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - Globalization of the workforce
    I think this will be increasing too. I have doubts any catchy phrases about keeping jobs at home will amount to anything, so our work will continue to be outsourced. This will have some negative impacts, including being partly responsible for that increase in the domestic wealth gap I just mentioned.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - The service economy
    Remarkably, not satisfied with being largely a service economy, the USA has moved in a path of being a narrow kind of service economy. More menial, laborious service is increasingly outsourced, as the USA relies more on information service, like entertainment and branding, research and development, etc... I suspect we'll continue to move in this direction in the next few decades, but I have no idea how it will actually be sustainable. We'll be more dependent for it as a result.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    - The deficit.
    I'm not touching this one.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    What do you think it will be like in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? How will US citizens be impacted?
    Overall outlook: bleak.

    Some bumps and jumps aside, I believe the over-all trend from here on out is downward. The USA is a setting sun.
    Go to sleep, iguana.


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  5. #5
    Don't Judge Me! Haphazard's Avatar
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    I love how everyone likes to call the USA dead on the table without even taking a pulse first.
    -Carefully taking sips from the Fire Hose of Knowledge

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    Away with the fairies Southern Kross's Avatar
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    Great questions. I have my opinions but it will be more interesting to see what others say.

    People have said the US is like the Roman or British Empires before their subsequent fall from power (burnt out from frequent wars, stretched resources, a changing society). Do other here believe this is a fair comparison? Can superpowers only last so long? Or is America going to be able to change with the times? I'd like to know more of what people think.

  7. #7
    Don't Judge Me! Haphazard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Kross View Post
    Great questions. I have my opinions but it will be more interesting to see what others say.

    People have said the US is like the Roman or British Empires before their subsequent fall from power (burnt out from frequent wars, stretched resources, a changing society). Do other here believe this is a fair comparison? Can superpowers only last so long? Or is America going to be able to change with the times? I'd like to know more of what people think.
    They sang "These times, they are a-changin'," and they certainly did change, but how?

    You give us too much credit to fall like the Roman Empire. We're more like old Poland, slowly strangling ourselves with procedure.

    But you gotta believe, man.
    -Carefully taking sips from the Fire Hose of Knowledge

  8. #8
    Dreaming the life onemoretime's Avatar
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    [quote=highlander29;1049474]I read earlier today that Americans are an optimistic and resilient bunch. We believe that economically we'll be better off in the future. What do you think?

    - The future role of the US in the world economy[quote]

    Still dominant, given our control of the food supply

    - Value of the dollar
    Major debt-deflation along with the rest of the world. Reasons for it expanded below.

    - Distance between haves and have nots
    These things work themselves back to an equilibrium somehow. It usually involves the haves overreaching, which they inevitably do - it's the hoarder mentality.

    - Globalization of the workforce
    Giant race to the bottom. Protectionism will come back big-time once populism makes its resurgence (not necessarily nationalistic, however)

    - The service economy
    A giant fraud. Wealth comes from two sources: the ground, and the improvements made to raw materials. Fees for services merely skim off of this wealth. That hasn't changed since the days of feudalism. As such, a "service economy" requires massive amounts of debt-fueled currency to stem off the effects of deflation in real dollars as industrial production and resource extraction both decline (we called this period stagflation). Eventually, these debt fueled dollars pool into various commodities, creating a bubble. This lasts until defaults start occurring, because those dollars never had any real wealth backing them - that is, no actual capital to improve upon and make more intrinsically valuable. Once this starts happening, the price starts falling, because those debt-dollars quite literally evaporate into nothingness, since they were never really there in the first place. Deflation runs rampant until the money supply accurately reflects the cognitive valuation of material goods in a society.

    - The deficit
    Doesn't matter all that much. Anyone really wants to call our debts, we go ridiculously protectionist on corn exports, and the price of most food worldwide quadruples (except here). That's the sort of thing that topples governments and starts World War III. It's just not going to happen.

    What do you think it will be like in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? How will US citizens be impacted?
    Hopefully for the better. We'll probably have some major social turmoil over the next two decades, if only because we're due. That is, if the panem and circenses don't work.

  9. #9
    Geolectric teslashock's Avatar
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    So long as we continue to let Glenn Beck indoctrinate American minds, we'll all be a-okay.

  10. #10
    Don't Judge Me! Haphazard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by onemoretime View Post

    Still dominant, given our control of the food supply


    Hopefully for the better. We'll probably have some major social turmoil over the next two decades, if only because we're due. That is, if the panem and circenses don't work.
    The reason for social turmoil is often because people are hungry -- and it's ridiculously difficult to go hungry in the United States. You have to like, try.
    -Carefully taking sips from the Fire Hose of Knowledge

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