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  1. #21
    Senior Member Feops's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    I read earlier today that Americans are an optimistic and resilient bunch. We believe that economically we'll be better off in the future. What do you think?

    - The future role of the US in the world economy
    - Value of the dollar
    - Distance between haves and have nots
    - Globalization of the workforce
    - The service economy
    - The deficit

    What do you think it will be like in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? How will US citizens be impacted?
    Well, I'm not american but I'll throw in my two cents.

    My prediction is that america right now is too big and important to fail. There is too much global vestment in america being strong and stable. However the result of the recent financial meltdown have brought it to everyone's attention that there is perhaps too much reliance on america. Countries will seek to strengthen their local trading blocs and devest in america. This will gradually erode america clout and will force a serious revision of their spending habits, especially on military. This will take a decade or two, and trickle down to the domestic level where there will be a painful (much doomsaying), gradual, but needed revolution in personal spending, debt, and responibility.

    This responsibility will re-enpower the middle class and america as a nation will shift into a more cooperative role. It will be a bit of a golden age for them, if a humble one. At no point will the country risk actual human disaster like widescale famine but tensions will spark over energy consumption and lack of individual purchasing power, unless there's a breakthrough in power generation.

  2. #22
    Pumpernickel
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    I.

    I will be the future of the United States.

  3. #23
    Dreaming the life onemoretime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerbah View Post
    But the US can't operate its military if it has no money. Once China and everyone else dump their USD and USD is worthless, America won't be able to finance anything. In the end, it's only one country.

    It seems to have already started. I read an article today that China has just sold over 34 billion of its USD holdings and Japan has sold 11.5 billion.
    Those are relatively insignificant fractions of the US outstanding debt. They also were bought up nearly immediately after being sold. The sky isn't falling.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Gerbah's Avatar
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    Who bought them? As far as I know generally, the US buys a lot of its own debt.
    the shoheen ho of the wind of the west and the lulla lo of the soft sea billow - Alfred Graves

  5. #25
    Dreaming the life onemoretime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerbah View Post
    Who bought them? As far as I know generally, the US buys a lot of its own debt.
    Not sure, was done through the UK though

  6. #26
    Administrator highlander's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Halla74 View Post
    The biggest threat in this day and age is transanational terrorism.

    If your job does not entail hands on work on products or delivery of services with face-time with your company's clients, then your job is at risk for off-shoring.

    FACT: After the Enron/Tyco/Arthur Andersen scandals and pillaging of corporate pension funds, the writing is on the wall, that the only SECURE PENSIONS are from (1) the Federal Government, (2) State Governments, and (3) Local Governments, and (4) Public Universities. Any firm who can make its board of directors rich by going out of business and pillaging the company's assets is at risk for liquidation. If you don't admit that then you are smoking PCP.

    Higher taxes, less to show for it, greater stress, continued erosion of the family unit, decreased quality of living in increments as your scale of time progresses forward.
    The transactional terrorism thing certainly scares me. Our country is so porous, I'm not sure how you can really effectively prevent it.

    Pension? What's that?

    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Remarkably, not satisfied with being largely a service economy, the USA has moved in a path of being a narrow kind of service economy. More menial, laborious service is increasingly outsourced, as the USA relies more on information service, like entertainment and branding, research and development, etc... I suspect we'll continue to move in this direction in the next few decades, but I have no idea how it will actually be sustainable. We'll be more dependent for it as a result.
    The thing that is worrisome is it's not just menial and laborious services. It's high tech jobs. The labor pool in the US seems expensive. I've been hearing that it will even out (like with India) but at present, there seems no sign of abatement.

    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Kross View Post
    People have said the US is like the Roman or British Empires before their subsequent fall from power (burnt out from frequent wars, stretched resources, a changing society). Do other here believe this is a fair comparison? Can superpowers only last so long? Or is America going to be able to change with the times? I'd like to know more of what people think.
    I have always thought the Roman or British Empire is a good comparison and would be interested as to why people don't think that is a valid comparison.

    The thing that seems different is the existence of corporations.

    Quote Originally Posted by onemoretime View Post

    Still dominant, given our control of the food supply

    These things work themselves back to an equilibrium somehow. It usually involves the haves overreaching, which they inevitably do - it's the hoarder mentality.

    Wealth comes from two sources: the ground, and the improvements made to raw materials. Fees for services merely skim off of this wealth. That hasn't changed since the days of feudalism. As such, a "service economy" requires massive amounts of debt-fueled currency to stem off the effects of deflation in real dollars as industrial production and resource extraction both decline (we called this period stagflation). Eventually, these debt fueled dollars pool into various commodities, creating a bubble. This lasts until defaults start occurring, because those dollars never had any real wealth backing them - that is, no actual capital to improve upon and make more intrinsically valuable. Once this starts happening, the price starts falling, because those debt-dollars quite literally evaporate into nothingness, since they were never really there in the first place. Deflation runs rampant until the money supply accurately reflects the cognitive valuation of material goods in a society.
    Ah the food supply. Maybe there is hope. Well - at least it can't be bad for Monsanto.

    Interesting point on "overreaching". That certainly seems to be the case.

    Is there historical evidence supporting that last paragraph? It seems like a very important point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shimmy View Post

    The dollar is an economic bubble, the biggest one ever. It's overpriced because of speculation and it's value is maintained by the fact that nobody wants the dollar to collapse because that would be bad for every one who has dollars (IE, everybody). However, should something go wrong I think even the Papiermark would be a reasonable alternative again.

    - The deficit

    Already astronomical and completely financed by the fact that everybody is still buying dollars. When people stop buying dollars other nations just wont loan any more money to the US and the nation will be forced to restructure entirely to be able to afford itself.
    But I thought we were supposed to be optimists? I personally have a large collection of Dutch Tulip Bulbs that I'd like to sell you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerbah View Post
    But the US can't operate its military if it has no money. Once China and everyone else dump their USD and USD is worthless, America won't be able to finance anything. In the end, it's only one country.

    It seems to have already started. I read an article today that China has just sold over 34 billion of its USD holdings and Japan has sold 11.5 billion.
    A similar thing happened to the former Soviet Union. I wonder how much pressure there will be to export one differentiated product the US makes - military equipment - or are we outsourcing the production of a lot of that too?

    Quote Originally Posted by Feops View Post

    My prediction is that america right now is too big and important to fail. There is too much global vestment in america being strong and stable. However the result of the recent financial meltdown have brought it to everyone's attention that there is perhaps too much reliance on america. Countries will seek to strengthen their local trading blocs and devest in america. This will gradually erode america clout and will force a serious revision of their spending habits, especially on military. This will take a decade or two, and trickle down to the domestic level where there will be a painful (much doomsaying), gradual, but needed revolution in personal spending, debt, and responibility.
    Holy moses Am I ignoring the good things above?

    Where is the silver lining?

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  7. #27
    Administrator highlander's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by onemoretime View Post
    Those are relatively insignificant fractions of the US outstanding debt. They also were bought up nearly immediately after being sold. The sky isn't falling.
    Ahh!! Good!! Missed this one.

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  8. #28
    Administrator highlander's Avatar
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    Just watched Shaun White's snowboarding. Maybe there is something to be optimistic about. Perhaps something about the American spirit.....

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  9. #29
    Artisan Conquerer Halla74's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    Just watched Shaun White's snowboarding. Maybe there is something to be optimistic about. Perhaps something about the American spirit.....
    There is ALOT to be optimistic about. Regardless of what issues this country has, nowhere else in the world can a man with a good work ethic, some smarts, and some luck go from ZERO to HERO, as easily or quickly as is possible here. The international community has cried for help from the U.S. for many reasons (troops, money, etc.) over the last 50 years, and we've come through. As a matter of fact I dare anyone to identify a country that has sacrificed more of its young soldiers for the freedom of others, or more of its money in international aid to others, as the United States has. For crying out loud, we rebuilt Germany after WWII, ala the Marshall Plan.

    So quickly those we have assisted have turned their backs on us for petty reasons. That's poor form as far as I'm concerned.

    At this point in history the U.S. is scrambling to recover from a most sizeable hiccup of the financial system. When times have gotten tough, the American people have galvanized themsleves and overcame whatever adversity faced them. This recession will be no different. This is a land of hardworking and good people whose leadership is just as incompetent and crooked as any other developed nation's leadership. The biggest thing to be optimistic about, highlander, is that America at the street level is a wonderful place. Don't ever confuse it for the gobbledy-gook shitpile that has become the national government's clan of insider cronies.

    Everybody hates the big dog on the street. Everyone who isn't part of the winning team has got some shit to say about #1. Any that consider this country dead in the water are wrong. We have some serious shit to go through to right the ship. But it can and will be done. The common man must just get smarter very quickly or be plundered by a system that is very efficient at bleeding the life out of people for the sake of creating profit for the capitalists in charge.

    For those who think the U.S.A. is a bad place to live, and a horrible nation, and a sinking ship I offer you the following: (1) Kiss my a$$, (2) If you live here and think that way, please leave, we don't need you, and (3) If you live elsewhere and are hatin' then look closely at your own country and think twice before casting the first stone, I'll bet wherever you are, there is some crooked shit going on in your nation's government too, you are no better than us, so get over yourself.
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  10. #30
    Senior Member Gerbah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    Ahh!! Good!! Missed this one.
    Sorry highlander, but the US government is the one buying a lot of its own debt, i.e. "quantitative easing". It's not the only one doing it. Everyone's printing money like crazy. We are all stuck in an essentially flawed system that benefits the 1% elite of the planet. That China has on top of it started selling off USD acquired in the past makes it worse but who can blame them.

    That the US buys its own debt is clear. But there are analysts who even say that now the US government has changed the rules so that it can buy its own debt but claim that the buyers are foreign. It is all very murky though and it's hard to know what any government is really doing.

    Quote Originally Posted by highlander29 View Post
    Where is the silver lining?
    I see the silver lining as being that at least with this crisis the corruption everywhere is being more exposed to the average citizen of the planet. So we can either open our eyes to the ugly truth and try to take control of the inevitable change to come when the system is reset, or the power elites reset it for us and give us something worse.
    the shoheen ho of the wind of the west and the lulla lo of the soft sea billow - Alfred Graves

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