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  1. #1
    mountain surfing nomadic's Avatar
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    Default Everyone in the US Knew There Might be a Housing Bubble

    In 2004-2005, Im sure you remember people saying "Oh crap, there's a housing bubble, just like the tech bubble" etc...etc...

    But people thought that the housing bubble would just continue and continue and continue... until... who knows what would happen? Thats what some people BET on at least ( taking out equity on the mortgage betting on prices going higher and higher?)

    Anyone that had any knowledge of the housing industry KNEW that the possibility of a housing bubble bursting at ANY MOMENT was there.

    SO WHAT THE HECK? Why are people saying " Oh you couldn't have seen this coming, blah blah blah" absolving themselves of all guilt?

    Uh... EVERYONE KNEW ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A HOUSING BUBBLE CRASH!! People took the risk KNOWING ABOUT IT! WTH? What kind of attitude is this of denial and guilt absolving retrospective amnesia? That is not healthy at all...

    I am not in any way saying mortgage lenders, fraud artists, risk hiding loan collateralized instruments were not responsible also. But clearly the attitude of "There is NO WAY we could have predicted the housing bubble" Is SO FALSE ITS RIDICULOUS!

  2. #2
    & Badger, Ratty and Toad Mole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nomadic View Post
    In 2004-2005, Im sure you remember people saying "Oh crap, there's a housing bubble, just like the tech bubble" etc...etc...

    But people thought that the housing bubble would just continue and continue and continue... until... who knows what would happen? Thats what some people BET on at least.

    But EVERYONE that had any knowledge of the housing industry KNEW that the possibility of a housing bubble bursting at ANY MOMENT was there.

    SO WHAT THE HECK? Why are people saying " Oh you couldn't have seen this coming, blah blah blah" absolving themselves of all guilt?

    Uh... EVERYONE KNEW ABOUT IT! Wth? What kind of attitude is this of denial and guilt absolving retrospective amnesia? That is not healthy at all...
    Yes, just as we do here, the market does not follow axiomatic logic.

    Here we follow rhetorical logic, just like the market.

    So the market is recursive, just as we are here. In other words, just as the meaning of an investment is the response of the market, so the meaning of a post is its response.

    Indeed the meaning of any communication is its response.

    What is unhealthy is thinking we are following axiomatic logic. For axiomatic logic cannot help us communicate any more than it can enrich us in the market.

  3. #3
    mountain surfing nomadic's Avatar
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    Default

    Im not talking about logical axioms, Im just talking about attitudes of people when looking retrospectively.

    Its like people saying " Yeah, I didn't know those Big Mac's made me fat, who would have known?"

    Its more honest to say "Yeah, I ate those big macs, it ended up making me fat after all."

  4. #4
    Artisan Conquerer Halla74's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by nomadic View Post
    In 2004-2005, Im sure you remember people saying "Oh crap, there's a housing bubble, just like the tech bubble" etc...etc...

    But people thought that the housing bubble would just continue and continue and continue... until... who knows what would happen? Thats what some people BET on at least ( taking out equity on the mortgage betting on prices going higher and higher?)

    Anyone that had any knowledge of the housing industry KNEW that the possibility of a housing bubble bursting at ANY MOMENT was there.

    SO WHAT THE HECK? Why are people saying " Oh you couldn't have seen this coming, blah blah blah" absolving themselves of all guilt?

    Uh... EVERYONE KNEW ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A HOUSING BUBBLE CRASH!! People took the risk KNOWING ABOUT IT! WTH? What kind of attitude is this of denial and guilt absolving retrospective amnesia? That is not healthy at all...

    I am not in any way saying mortgage lenders, fraud artists, risk hiding loan collateralized instruments were not responsible also. But clearly the attitude of "There is NO WAY we could have predicted the housing bubble" Is SO FALSE ITS RIDICULOUS!
    In theory its easy to say that the stock market, bond market, and yes, even the real estate market are subject to waves of positive growth and periods of decline, that is obvious.

    The big questions are (1) where is each market in terms of each cycle, and (2) when will each market "pop."

    All three instruments of investment are white collar gambling, I don't care how technical or analytical of a basis they can be observed under, it is brain intensive guesstimation, which is nothing more than gambling in my opinion.

    So, what is your point? That everyone in the U.S. economy was blindly playing stupid and deserves whatever negative economic impacts have fallen on the economy as a whole?

    That seems to be an unecessarily harsh vantage point to assume, especially considering that elitist manipulation of the economy and a total lack of regulation of the financial system played prominent roles in setting up such disasters. Sure consumers are responsible for their own financial position in many ways, but that does not mean that they should be able to predict cataclysmis financial meltdowns which are made possible by mechanisms far beyond their comprehension, let alone ability to control.
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  5. #5
    mountain surfing nomadic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Halla74 View Post
    So, what is your point? That everyone in the U.S. economy was blindly playing stupid and deserves whatever negative economic impacts have fallen on the economy as a whole?

    My point is that people saying " There is no way we could have predicted this" is not being honest. People knew this might happen and were making an informed bet the whole time. And then after the fact, you can't say you had no idea that would happen.

    Yes, I agree that fraud, risk hiding, etc... was wrong, and that has been done to death a billion times over. Now its time to look back and people to realize what went wrong with the entire system. Including people who got greedy, and now claim that they had "no idea".

    Quote Originally Posted by nomadic View Post
    Im not talking about logical axioms, Im just talking about attitudes of people when looking retrospectively.

    Its like people saying " Yeah, I didn't know those Big Mac's made me fat, who would have known?"

    Its more honest to say "Yeah, I ate those big macs, it ended up making me fat after all."
    Quote Originally Posted by Halla74 View Post
    Sure consumers are responsible for their own financial position in many ways, but that does not mean that they should be able to predict cataclysmis financial meltdowns which are made possible by mechanisms far beyond their comprehension, let alone ability to control.
    Yeah, I know a lot of fraud was out there. But come on now. Everyone knew that there might be a housing bubble of some sort. Everyone NEEDED for their housing prices to continue to go higher. Which is fine, thats the way the system works then.

    But for everyone to look BACK and say "We had no idea this would happen, that housing prices would fall" is simply disingenuous. I would believe someone saying " We thought that our interest payments would stay the same forever, we didn't understand how ARMS work" more than "We thought there was no risk housing prices would fall".

  6. #6
    Senior Member Dooraven's Avatar
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    It wasn't really that everyone in the US saw the house bust coming, it was that everyone who paid focus to the economy saw the house bust coming, but they didn't really care - they were more preoccupied with making money through shady and high risk loans.

    This combined with the severe deregulation of the market brought us to this current situation.
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  7. #7
    mountain surfing nomadic's Avatar
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    I understand what happened and how it happened.

    Im talking about people's attitude looking back on what happened.

    Everyone was in on it for the most part. Knowing this will lead us to the right solution going forward. To say "there is no way we could have seen it coming" is just not the right attitude IMO. Because it is CLEARLY not true, and KNOWINGLY believing in lies was a big part of this crisis in the first place.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Dooraven's Avatar
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    Yeah, I agree with you there.
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  9. #9
    & Badger, Ratty and Toad Mole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nomadic View Post
    Im not talking about logical axioms, Im just talking about attitudes of people when looking retrospectively.

    Its like people saying " Yeah, I didn't know those Big Mac's made me fat, who would have known?"

    Its more honest to say "Yeah, I ate those big macs, it ended up making me fat after all."
    Sure, we honestly believe we can communicate or make money in the market by thinking a certain way - but we are wrong.

    Frankly, it is not a moral question of being honest with oneself or dishonest with oneself - it is far worse, it is a mistake in thinking.

    I guess the problem you and I have, Nomadic, is that I am saying you are repeating a mistake in thinking, but you don't want to hear this, you just want to keep on making the mistake.

    The definition of madness is to keep on doing the same thing and hoping each time for a different result.

    And the reason you keep on making the same mistake over and over is that you want to feel you are a moral person, and even worse, you want to be seen as a moral person.

    But the only result is absurdity.

  10. #10
    mountain surfing nomadic's Avatar
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    ^ No, my point is to solve the problem. Im not talking about making money on a bet in the market. Im actually not trading at the moment and have not been for a few months now. We are talking about two different things here.

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