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  1. #1
    Order Now! pure_mercury's Avatar
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    Default Possible 2012 Presidential Candidates

    OK, so this is two years early, but I wanted to see if anyone felt strongly for/about potential 2012 candidates for U.S. President. Barack Obama will get the Democratic nomination, unless they find him in bed with a dead underage hooker sometime in the next 30 months. The GOP will have a VERY interesting nominating process, especially if they make gains in Congress in 2010. Here are some names that are being bandied about:


    Former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska - Hoo boy, would that be entertaining. Palin-Beck 2012?

    Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia - I highly doubt it, but I wouldn't be surprised if he involved himself (publicly or not) with the campaign of a "properly conservative" candidate. He still has a cadre of GOP true believers who love him.

    Rep. Ron Paul of Texas - He's getting up there in age (despite being in amazing shape) and I think he is far more into the idea of his Campaign for Liberty. He will be very much involved in the Senate runs of Peter Schiff in Connecticut and his son Rand Paul in Kentucky (yes, his son Randal calls himself "Rand").

    Former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas - My personal LEAST favorite potential GOP candidate. He'd appeal to the small-town, anti-Washington/Wall Street crowd, but I would foresee a major drubbing against Obama. Not nearly fiscally conservative enough, and the preacher background might actually work against him. Very interesting about religion, though. Obama vs. Huckabee would have to be the most devout presidential square-off in modern American history.

    Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts - Something tells me not to count Romney out, but the Mormon thing might still be an issue. Plus, he'd most likely lose his own state, and I don't know if he has the personal charisma to take down Obama.

    Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota - Widely tipped to become a national "face" for the GOP, he is good-looking and fairly popular among those who know him. He has come out to criticize Obama on several occasions, as well. Does he have the heft and name recognition?

    Former Gov. Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico - Perhaps the most libertarian non-Ron Paul Republican candidate, he would represent a more mainstream small-government conservative message that would contrast with Obama and Congressional Democrats. Could be a strong dark horse if he can raise his profile.

    Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana - Sort of the insider's Gary Johnson, Mitch Daniels is strong on fiscal discipline and has experience outside of politics. Slightly dorky and tied to the Bush 43 Administration, however (even though they pretty much ignored his advice whenever they felt like it).

    Former Mayor Rudy Guiliani of New York - I really doubt it. He's a cheerleader at best now.

    Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana - Midwestern conservative. Strongly Christian, pretty much a Bush-type, except he's an immigration hawk. Might entice some Palin/Huckabee voters.

    Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana - He's a minority, a social conservative, and has executive experience, so he would have quite a bit of appeal as Bizarro Obama. I don't think he has enough name recognition throughout the nation, though, and he hasn't seemed to assert himself as a major player.

    Former Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi - Might as well call Central Casting for "fat, crooked Southern Republican." He is a former lobbyist. It'll never happen.

    Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania - Did I say that Mike Huckabee was my least favorite candidate? I fucking hate this guy. I hate that he represented my home state in the Senate for six years. Again, a burnt offering to the Idol Obama.

    Former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida - Roofles.


    Also, Libertarian, Green, and independent speculation is welcome. Wayne Allyn Root might make another bid for the LP. Does Nader give it one last whirl? Let's hear some wild speculation.
    Who wants to try a bottle of merc's "Extroversion Olive Oil?"

  2. #2
    Playnerd Timeless's Avatar
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    2012
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  3. #3
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    Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota - Widely tipped to become a national "face" for the GOP, he is good-looking and fairly popular among those who know him. He has come out to criticize Obama on several occasions, as well. Does he have the heft and name recognition?
    If I had to put money on who the GOP candidate ends up being in '12, it would be Pawlenty.

  4. #4
    Minister of Propagandhi ajblaise's Avatar
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    Romney and Tim Pawlenty have the best chance of beating Obama, even if it's a slim chance. But they might not have the best chance of being nominated. Huckabee and Palin, two people who would essentially hand over victory to Obama if they are nominated, are among the current Republican front runners. But in the general public, only 9% of people say they would "definitely support a Palin presidential run".

    Obama will most likely be re-elected, but this depends on a few variables, like state of the economy, which will probably be in better shape by 2012 with higher growth and more employment, but there's no guarantee. A major terrorist attack could also sway things. If nothing terribly unexpected happens, I predict Obama will win by a relatively slim-to-moderate margin.

  5. #5
    Une Femme est une femme paperoceans's Avatar
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    I would vote for Ron Paul, but I thought he wasn't running for President again?
    Between that cigarillo and sticking my finger down my throat to see if I could DT, I feel like puking RN.

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  6. #6

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    Isn't it a little early to be thinking of 2012? Especially when, 2010 is such a crucial mid-term election?

    All I have to say, as a long time independent voter is that Palin was a big turn-off for me. I tallied points up for voting for McCain vs. Obama, and it was close. Although I really didn't like Biden either, Palin gave the VP pick point to Obama (Honestly, I counted her as a positive because she was supposed to be an outsider who supposedly fought corruption. Then she started preaching. The whole, "I'm better 'cause I'm from a small town, and I hate vegetarians" angle just doesn't sit well with me. Her giving up as Governor, and the inane ramble she gave when she did, seems to confirm her as a Grade A flake).

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  7. #7
    Senior Member Ruthie's Avatar
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    Alright, pure_mercury - I know you and I come at this from pretty much opposite perspectives, but I can't resist the urge to participate.

    On the Republicans... Huckabee was actually my favorite of the group last time around (gotta give the guy credit for coining the term "Club for Greed,") but he's been pushed pretty far into the anti-government crowd since joining Fox. Too bad too, because despite his reputation as a conservative Southern preacher, he actually had some well thought out ideas that were unexpected. Every now and then, there are flashes of vintage Huck from '08, but he's mostly lost the iconoclasm that earned my respect last go 'round.

    I also think you're underestimating Haley Barbour. Man's smart. Really smart. He's got the conservative cred to hold the base, but is extremely shrewd and won't get pinned down by the wingnuts. As a Democrat, he's one who might scare me.

    Personally (not politically) I really like Mitch Daniels. I worked for a Democratic Congressional candidate in Indiana when Daniels was running for governor, and he was one of the nicest candidates of either party I've come into contact with. He's a definite sleeper pick. But his background (pharmaceuticals? OMB for Bush?) might cause some problems for him.

    Palin - don't see that one happening. To be honest, I'll be surprised if she even runs.

    Romney - Probably the most realistic path to the nomination, but do Republicans really want someone who seems so... stereotypically Republican? Tie a sweater around his neck and he's off to play tennis with Muffy...

    Jindal could be a reasonable candidate. The SOTU response was laughable, but I don't think it was career-killing. If he can raise the money, and learn to speak in public he can mount a challenge. An underdog, but not out of the realm of possibility.

    Rand Paul - Slow down... he has to win his Senate nomination first... as for his father, sigh...

    Pawlenty - The Romney of 2012. Governs a state favorable to Democrats. Reputation for temperamental moderation and milquetoast-iness. Goes transparently far Right in advance of nominating process. Won't voters see through that?

    Gary Johnson - Wow, haven't heard that name in a while. And that can't be a good thing for him. Even when he did have a profile, it was mostly just for drug legalization. I don't identify any other issue with him.

    Giuliani - Done. Favorite line from the last campaign: "Like millions of New Yorkers, Giuliani went to Florida to die." - Margaret Carlson on Rudy's disastrous campaign strategy of skipping earlier primaries to campaign in Florida.

    Santorum - I agree with you that the guy is a nightmare, but I could also see him getting some traction in the primary. He can get Palin's crowd, but doesn't seem as frivolous and narcissistic as Palin.

    Mike Pence - He's the hope of a lot of intellectual conservatives, but I haven't heard anything about him considering a Presidential run. Kinda the Newt of the future.

    Newt - Don't know. Smart guy, but isn't likability a little important?

    Other potential sleepers...

    Jim DeMint has been generating some buzz from the Tea Party base, and the far Right might push him into a Presidential run.

    John Thune of South Dakota has been mentioned a few times as well. I really don't know why - he doesn't seem to be an extraordinary Senator... I honestly think it's because he's young, good looking, and not crazy.

    If the Republicans wanted to pull someone serious out of the Senate, they might take a look at Bob Corker of Tennessee. He's conservative, but not reflexively so. He's a thoughtful Senator and a pretty articulate messenger. Not the most charismatic though.

    As for the Libbies and Greens...

    Libbies first:

    Please. Be. Joking. About. Wayne. Allyn. Root. That man grates on me like none other. The only re-tread candidate the LP could come up with who has less personal appeal is George Phillies, that New England guy who can't go ten seconds without listing his accomplishments. The LP would do well to find some fresh candidates; their group last time out was a nightmare.

    Greens:

    Nader hasn't gotten the GP nomination since 2000 (2004 was David Cobb, and '08 was Cynthia McKinney; Nader ran as an independent both cycles). The GP is pretty much in shambles right now, but there does seem to be some excitement about Matt Gonzales - Nader's running mate from '08. A few years back, he almost beat Gavin Newsome as mayor of SF, and if the GP can entice him back into the Green fold, he'd probably be a popular pick. [it doesn't take much to be considered a "serious" contender for the GP nomination.]

  8. #8
    Glowy Goopy Goodness The_Liquid_Laser's Avatar
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    A lot of comments I'm reading so far seem to suggest that Republicans are going to try to pick an effective leader. Let me remind everyone that George W. Bush was elected twice. They tried that respectable leader bullcrap with McCain, and it didn't work. That's because the Republican party doesn't want a respectable leader. Instead what they want another George W. Bush.

    The thing that made W so appealing to Republicans is that he loved God, war and money. Republicans have really got to believe you love all three in order to "energize the base". The 2008 primary didn't really have someone who loved the magic trio, so the votes were basically split three ways: Huckabee (God), McCain (war) and Romney (money). So the pick for 2012 will be the candidate that fits into the magic trio even if this candidate is just as incompetent as W.

    The choice is clear: Sarah Palin. Will Palin win moderates? No, but winning moderates is not really the Republican strategy. Instead their strategy is to "energize the base", and then sling enough mud so that everyone else will want to stay home. So I think Palin will win the nomination in 2012.

    Will she win the presidency? Doubtful, but she has the best chance of everyone listed. Really the 2012 election is Obama's to lose since he's the incumbent. If he makes a big screw up in the next couple of years then he's out, and otherwise he's staying in.
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  9. #9
    Order Now! pure_mercury's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Liquid_Laser View Post
    A lot of comments I'm reading so far seem to suggest that Republicans are going to try to pick an effective leader. Let me remind everyone that George W. Bush was elected twice. They tried that respectable leader bullcrap with McCain, and it didn't work. That's because the Republican party doesn't want a respectable leader. Instead what they want another George W. Bush.

    The thing that made W so appealing to Republicans is that he loved God, war and money. Republicans have really got to believe you love all three in order to "energize the base". The 2008 primary didn't really have someone who loved the magic trio, so the votes were basically split three ways: Huckabee (God), McCain (war) and Romney (money). So the pick for 2012 will be the candidate that fits into the magic trio even if this candidate is just as incompetent as W.

    The choice is clear: Sarah Palin. Will Palin win moderates? No, but winning moderates is not really the Republican strategy. Instead their strategy is to "energize the base", and then sling enough mud so that everyone else will want to stay home. So I think Palin will win the nomination in 2012.

    Will she win the presidency? Doubtful, but she has the best chance of everyone listed. Really the 2012 election is Obama's to lose since he's the incumbent. If he makes a big screw up in the next couple of years then he's out, and otherwise he's staying in.

    I really disagree. I think Palin would lose by a decent margin to Obama, unless he really shits the bed.
    Who wants to try a bottle of merc's "Extroversion Olive Oil?"

  10. #10
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    I think for 2012 there should be a Reality TV Show to Determine the next President.

    We'll Call it, "America Has No Political Talent"

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