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  1. #1
    Plumage and Moult proteanmix's Avatar
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    Default Lagging/Leading Economic Indicators and the Stimulus

    Over the past year, I've been slowly trying to understand what is going on with the economy. Something I've recently discovered that makes a lot of sense to me are lagging and leading economic indicators.

    What I'm not understand is why people are saying the economic stimulus didn't or isn't working. Most leading indicators between 1Q 2009 and now suggest it is working and lagging ones are going to take at least a year to manifest themselves.

    What are people basing statements that the stimulus was a waste on? Is there something else at work that I don't know?
    Relationships have normal ebbs and flows. They do not automatically get better and better when the participants learn more and more about each other. Instead, the participants have to work through the tensions of the relationship (the dialectic) while they learn and group themselves and a parties in a relationships. At times the relationships is very open and sharing. Other time, one or both parties to the relationship need their space, or have other concerns, and the relationship is less open. The theory posits that these cycles occur throughout the life of the relationship as the persons try to balance their needs for privacy and open relationship.
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    No one can prove that the stimulus had any impact on those numbers, positive or negative.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  3. #3

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    Causation is hard to prove. But there is still more evidence that the stimulus is working than there is evidence it is not.

    The big question is, however, if there was or was not a better/faster stimulus package available.

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    "[A] scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy." Richard Feynman
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  4. #4
    Plumage and Moult proteanmix's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    Causation is hard to prove. But there is still more evidence that the stimulus is working than there is evidence it is not.

    The big question is, however, if there was or was not a better/faster stimulus package available.
    If no one can prove the stimulus caused improvement then as of right now they can't say that it made anything worse either.

    The stimulus package may have been necessary to create an economic placebo effect. There needed to be medicine administered so people would think something instead (as opposed to not doing anything at all) was being done to serve as a marker or some type of intervention.
    Relationships have normal ebbs and flows. They do not automatically get better and better when the participants learn more and more about each other. Instead, the participants have to work through the tensions of the relationship (the dialectic) while they learn and group themselves and a parties in a relationships. At times the relationships is very open and sharing. Other time, one or both parties to the relationship need their space, or have other concerns, and the relationship is less open. The theory posits that these cycles occur throughout the life of the relationship as the persons try to balance their needs for privacy and open relationship.
    Interpersonal Communication Theories and Concepts
    Social Penetration Theory 1
    Social Penetration Theory 2
    Social Penetration Theory 3

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    Senior Member avolkiteshvara's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post

    The big question is, however, if there was or was not a better/faster stimulus package available.
    True. I remember reading Martin Wolf(Financial Times Editor), Paul Krugman, and a whole host of other economists that said it was too small.


    But yeah, how do you prove something that didn't happen. Most critiques will use that line.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by proteanmix View Post
    If no one can prove the stimulus caused improvement then as of right now they can't say that it made anything worse either.

    The stimulus package may have been necessary to create an economic placebo effect. There needed to be medicine administered so people would think something instead (as opposed to not doing anything at all) was being done to serve as a marker or some type of intervention.
    All theory. None of that can be proven. The only thing that is indisputable is that we now have a larger debt. Well, and those bank executives got their bonuses.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by proteanmix View Post
    If no one can prove the stimulus caused improvement then as of right now they can't say that it made anything worse either.
    Yup. They cannot prove it made the economy worse.

    Quote Originally Posted by proteanmix View Post
    The stimulus package may have been necessary to create an economic placebo effect. There needed to be medicine administered so people would think something instead (as opposed to not doing anything at all) was being done to serve as a marker or some type of intervention.
    That would be an interesting thing to study. I wonder what would be the equivalent of a sugar pill.

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
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    "As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance." John Wheeler
    "[A] scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy." Richard Feynman
    "[P]etabytes of [] data is not the same thing as understanding emergent mechanisms and structures." Jim Crutchfield

  8. #8
    Don't Judge Me! Haphazard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post

    That would be an interesting thing to study. I wonder what would be the equivalent of a sugar pill.
    Saying that you're doing some massive stimulus whatever but not do anything at all.
    -Carefully taking sips from the Fire Hose of Knowledge

  9. #9
    Senior Member avolkiteshvara's Avatar
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    Moral suasion

  10. #10
    Feelin' FiNe speculative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    All theory. None of that can be proven. The only thing that is indisputable is that we now have a larger debt. Well, and those bank executives got their bonuses.
    The media is focusing on the question, "Did the stimulus work?" to avoid the more important question of, "How does the effectiveness of the stimulus compare to the effectiveness of other possible uses of the money?" (Other uses could be tax cuts, tax rebate checks, additional specific industry-focused spending similar to "cash for clunkers," etc.) Whether or not the stimulus worked is irrelevant if there was an alternative that would have been twice as efective and cost half as much.
    "How can I be, all I want to be,
    When all I want to do is strip away these stilled constraints
    And crush this charade, shred this sad, masquerade"
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