Now, that being said, we are WAY more accurate than we once were, and our knowledge is growing by leaps and bounds. But of the sciences we have... climate is one of the weakest fields we have currently in terms of understanding.
We also know that there are changes occurring at all times, and that we're currently in a transitional phase as there's several cycles all occurring at a relatively similar time frame. It's not a "zomg the stars are aligned!" type occurrence, but it's definitely abnormal right now. How much of an impact is man made, and how much is due to various other very grand scale factors (like... solar cycles; right now the sun's output is about 15% less than the average amount during a high peak, this skews the results of where the temperatures should be significantly), is hard to tell, though admittedly man made changes are significantly less by anyone's estimate. Even so, we could very well be the figurative straw that broke the camel's back as well. After all, no one rain drop thinks it is to blame for the flood =3
I don't totally disagree with yeu honestly, I just think yeur reasoning of how yeu're coming to yeur conclusion sucks ^^