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  1. #1
    my floof is luxury Wind Up Rex's Avatar
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    Default The Death of the Republican Party, Stardate Unknown

    The latest brainchild from Conan is the William Shatner rendition of Sarah Palin's farewell address. What's wonderful about this is not the delicious irony of one-hit wonder acting out the swan song of another, but the fact that it's so beautiful in comparison. So much so, that even with Shatner's overblown reading theres a point where the audience stops laughing and really listens to words that in the hands of a halfway decent orator would have been a poignant statement on the pride the speaker has in the beauty and promise of their country. A statement that was mutilated by the last great hope of the Republican party.

    It may be Ne in overdrive, but after I watched that clip I realized that it is beyond doubtful that the Republican party will survive to the next presidential election. I don't think help is on the way for them, and that the major competition for the incumbent is going to be a libertarian or green third party. Anyways, this is just what Ive been mulling. Thoughts?

  2. #2
    Order Now! pure_mercury's Avatar
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    They said the same thing in 2000 after Bush was elected and the GOP held majorities in both house. A "permanent majority" as some people predicted. The two major parties are far too big and too cutthroat to disappear any time soon. The Democratic Congress isn't particularly popular right now, either. If Obama's popularity continues to sag, you will a GOP resurgence in the next few years. Perhaps not 2010, but sooner rather than later.
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  3. #3
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    I keep saying that it's almost institutionally impossible for the Republicans or Democrats to die.

    On top of that, the situation isn't so bad for the Republicans. I'm hoping they keep fumbling all the way into 2012, but by 2016, the chances of a Republican president are high, not to mention that congress could turn over by then.

    The story has alternated back and fourth about either Democrats or Republicans being doomed. This stems from the media's flawed habit of projecting eternally into the future that which is true right now.
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  4. #4
    Senior Member iamathousandapples's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    I keep saying that it's almost institutionally impossible for the Republicans or Democrats to die.

    On top of that, the situation isn't so bad for the Republicans. I'm hoping they keep fumbling all the way into 2012, but by 2016, the chances of a Republican president are high, not to mention that congress could turn over by then.

    The story has alternated back and fourth about either Democrats or Republicans being doomed. This stems from the media's flawed habit of projecting eternally into the future that which is true right now.
    They are fumbling. Hopefully in 2016 they'll actually be Libertarian as opposed to the current disgusting flavour of "Morally superior" Republicans which if it doesn't kill the Republican Party, it'll surely weaken it hard.

  5. #5
    Habitual Fi LineStepper JocktheMotie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post

    The story has alternated back and fourth about either Democrats or Republicans being doomed. This stems from the media's flawed habit of projecting eternally into the future that which is true right now.
    And you don't see a similarity here with any other political issue right now?

    In regards to the issue, I don't see any real up and coming leader that has any kind of legitimacy. Who excites anybody on the republican side? Like Apples said, if they don't adopt a more socially liberal stance [doesn't have to go too far] or come up with some good government shrinking ideas then I don't see how they're going to win.

    But like Magic said, they're not really going to go anywhere. They'll rebound, just a matter of when.



  6. #6

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    The Republican Party is hardly dead. They've been out of power only for a short amount of time.

    It is true they lack a viable presidential candidate, but it's only 2009.

    Besides...

    Obama is slipping in the polls. His health-care initiative is stalling. Biden admitted to have underestimated the recession. We are still having trouble getting a good strategy in Afghanistan....

    There are some meager signs of economic recovery, and the pull-out of Iraq seems to be going well, but other than for that the Democrats don't have much to hold up as successes.

    It is clear that a lot of Obama's near term approval rating will rest on how the health-care bill comes out.

    I hope the bipartisan version of the health-care bill is what makes it to Obama...the one that actually reigns in costs, keeps people's existing health-care, and is a long way away from completion.

    As usual, the controlling party is trying to save face, while the minority party tries to disgrace the majority. The words "too important to play politics with" is something I have only heard from one congressman (a Republican).

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  7. #7
    Dreaming the life onemoretime's Avatar
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    ^^ We're not talking about your run-of-the-mill political issues here, we're talking about severe structural issues in the GOP. Demographically, they're screwed - there are simply not enough racist white people to make up for the increase in minority population anymore. Before you think I'm merely blurting out stereotypes - Southern strategy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    White southerners, the Republican base, tend to actually be fairly fiscally liberal, explaining much of Mike Huckabee's popularity. The GOP was able to sell this base on two fronts - cultural decadence and religious fervor, and the extension of the social safety net to minorities, particularly blacks, after the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

    The GOP literally has nothing to buttress it at this point, as even Northeastern corporatists, their once strongest base, tend to be very socially liberal. At best, they're a regional rump party for the near-future. Yes, in 2001, much the same was reported about the Democrats, but that was because of their disorganization, not because of demographic pressure.

  8. #8
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by onemoretime View Post
    ^^ We're not talking about your run-of-the-mill political issues here, we're talking about severe structural issues in the GOP. Demographically, they're screwed - there are simply not enough racist white people to make up for the increase in minority population anymore. Before you think I'm merely blurting out stereotypes - Southern strategy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    White southerners, the Republican base, tend to actually be fairly fiscally liberal, explaining much of Mike Huckabee's popularity. The GOP was able to sell this base on two fronts - cultural decadence and religious fervor, and the extension of the social safety net to minorities, particularly blacks, after the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

    The GOP literally has nothing to buttress it at this point, as even Northeastern corporatists, their once strongest base, tend to be very socially liberal. At best, they're a regional rump party for the near-future. Yes, in 2001, much the same was reported about the Democrats, but that was because of their disorganization, not because of demographic pressure.
    The Republican party of Lincoln, and the Republican party of Coolidge, and the Republican party of Reagan, all had different demographic strategies.

    The target changes, but the party remains.

    And to illustrate a relatively short term example, here's Carter vs Ford in 1976:



    And here's Bush vs Gore in 2000:



    Demography and policy are mercurial.
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  9. #9
    Dreaming the life onemoretime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    The Republican party of Lincoln, and the Republican party of Coolidge, and the Republican party of Reagan, all had different demographic strategies.

    The target changes, but the party remains.
    Lincoln - Northeastern industrialists combined with western libertarians and abolitionists. That shifted to an entirely laissez-faire party following 1876 and Reconstruction, as abolitionism was gone, and structural issues shoved the social libertarians into the desert.

    Coolidge - industrialists have become corporatists, and Northeastern aristocrats. Were more socially liberal than the populist Democrats, even though the latter did have its progressive wing (that unfortunately still toyed with eugenics at this time).

    Reagan - industrial corporatists combined with Southern social conservatives/racists, with the idea that the social safety net took the latter's money away from them to give to minorities, combined with the extreme social change of the last 20 years (which the former didn't care about, no market)

    Today - social conservatives are throwing the corporatists out of the party for not being "conservative" enough.

    They're killing their historical core. The only thing that has been consistent about the GOP throughout its history was that it was the party of Business, and now business is being shoved out due to the social conservatives' resistance to social change. Social conservatism is a regional rump, particularly based in rural America, particularly in the Southeast and Plains states. 80% of the country's population lives in urban/suburban areas.

    This is a death spiral, not a strategy.

  10. #10
    IRL is not real Cimarron's Avatar
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    The point is that political parties are salesmen, and they adjust to setbacks by selling a different product. They've always done so in the past, and that's why these two parties have survived.

    Their "philosophies" only last as long as they'll gather votes. When that begins to fail (as you're suggesting it is), they'll change philosophies. Of course if they don't, then yes, they probably will die as a party--but they've both survived for over 150 years because they change their philosophies rather than continuously lose elections, and that's kept them in place. The last thing political parties want is to lose elections.

    Now I have to wonder, will this time be different? Have U.S. politics become so polarized and philosophies become so rigid that the parties won't be allowed (by voters) to flex and bend? Or is this the way politics have always been?
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