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  1. #11
    DoubleplusUngoodNonperson
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    ^ yeah exactly..... I bet the entire world was looking and quietly hoping we had a revolution, too. Didn't happen here, isn't gonna happen in Iran.

  2. #12
    Minister of Propagandhi ajblaise's Avatar
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    When the young and affluent populations in Iran inherit the country and the religious fundies die off, I can definitely see a large change and shift towards liberal democracy taking place. 70% of Iran is under 30 years old, because of the baby-boom that happened after the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

    They are revolting now, though it's not going to lead to an actual revolution just yet. But in a few years, if the liberal pro-democracy movement there keeps growing and not enough gradual change happens to appease them, it's definitely possible.

  3. #13
    Senior Member Misty_Mountain_Rose's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nozflubber View Post
    ^ yeah exactly..... I bet the entire world was looking and quietly hoping we had a revolution, too. Didn't happen here, isn't gonna happen in Iran.
    Americans have become too comfortable with trusting the system to 'revolt' unless it were to become PERSONAL instead of a theory in their minds. When the fighting happens miles and miles away and we're nestled safe in our SUV's and log cabins its hard for some to admit that this can directly affect them. Which is ridiculous of course because the world is 'smaller' than ever these days.

    Other countries that are newer to democracy tend not to take their liberties lightly. In their generation or perhaps the generation before, they REMEMBER the tyrrany. They or their parents and grandparents had to fight for what they have today, and they're very protective of it. Americans have become lazy. Although I must say that from an outsiders perspective (not being from Cali myself) California seems to take its rights very seriously and does more petitioning, picketing and active politic-ing than most other states do.
    Embrace the possibilities.

  4. #14
    Allergic to Mornings ergophobe's Avatar
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    It was surprising too that the Council of Guardians agreed to a recount or more precisely, consider the matter within ten days when the Ayatollah had already backed Ahmadinejad and congratulated him on his victory. The sheer numbers of people who turned out has surprised them, I think.

    The Council has offered to recount some of the votes (just in the urban areas where they seemed suspect?), not all of them. Moussavi's supporters seem to have rejected this offer and asking for another election.

    I think the very fact that a recount is being offered, even partial says that the dictatorship had to broaden - make some allowances as compared to before. I'll be curious to see what happens with civil liberties. Will people be allowed to protest over the next few days/weeks or will they choose to repress with greater force? Today, they are targeting foreign media with new clampdowns.

  5. #15
    Senior Member Qre:us's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ergophobe View Post
    I think the very fact that a recount is being offered, even partial says that the dictatorship had to broaden - make some allowances as compared to before. I'll be curious to see what happens with civil liberties. Will people be allowed to protest over the next few days/weeks or will they choose to repress with greater force? Today, they are targeting foreign media with new clampdowns.
    I think it's a tactical move on the part of the fundies to quiet the rising dissent by offering a "recount" (note the quotes, extrapolate given the shadiness of their political milieu and conclude....).

    The opposition would be smart to resist a "recount", and, push for another election, with a plan of recommendations for more stringent watchguard during the whole polling process.

  6. #16
    I am Sofa King!!! kendoiwan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Qre:us View Post
    I think it's a tactical move on the part of the fundies to quiet the rising dissent by offering a "recount" (note the quotes, extrapolate given the shadiness of their political milieu and conclude....).

    The opposition would be smart to resist a "recount", and, push for another election, with a plan of recommendations for more stringent watchguard during the whole polling process.
    A "recount" is more than the U.S. got in 2000. The Supreme Court just said, "SHADDUP!" Gore went meekly into the sunset, and the public just accepted it.
    http://www.typologycentral.com/forum...ml#post1161526

    "They the type of cats who pollute the whole shoreline. Have it purified. Sell it for a $1.25"

  7. #17
    Allergic to Mornings ergophobe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Qre:us View Post
    I think it's a tactical move on the part of the fundies to quiet the rising dissent by offering a "recount" (note the quotes, extrapolate given the shadiness of their political milieu and conclude....).

    The opposition would be smart to resist a "recount", and, push for another election, with a plan of recommendations for more stringent watchguard during the whole polling process.
    Definitely -- I find the whole partial recount thing funny too (what parts would be recounted, again)?

    It is a tactical move, no doubt, any move they make now will be strategic. It is one of several though --- the repression has been present but a lot lower than what they could use to quell protests. They're offering a lame recount -- they could have chosen to do none of these things. I would like a look inside the Iranian leaders' heads (scary places as most heads are) to see how they are perceiving the situation - how far do they think they would need to go to quell the protests semi-peacefully. What kinds of discussions are being held within the council and with the Ayatollah?

    I agree - the opposition should continue asking for a new election with monitors. I doubt the Iranian government would agree to international observers but neutral observers would be good, regardless.

    Having said that, I wonder how much of a possibility there is for a new election. That would be a pretty large step by the theocracy - acknowledging that they either messed up (encouraged the rigging or skewed the results) or that they don't have complete control of the process (don't control Ahmadinejad supporters).

  8. #18
    Allergic to Mornings ergophobe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ajblaise View Post
    They are revolting now, though it's not going to lead to an actual revolution just yet. But in a few years, if the liberal pro-democracy movement there keeps growing and not enough gradual change happens to appease them, it's definitely possible.
    I agree - all signs for the last many years have pointed in this direction. I wonder how long it will be. The current protests make me think smaller steps towards democratization may happen sooner than I thought -- even reconsidering election results seen as unfair is in keeping with a democratic norm.

    I know, when it happens, women will be in the forefront again. Another stat of interest - 60% of women in Iran's major universities are said to be women (NY Times).

    In an applied physics department, 60% women
    BBC NEWS | Middle East | Women graduates challenge Iran

    More than we can say for many math and science departments here - think Harvard and the whole Larry Summers controversy a few years ago.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by ergophobe View Post
    Definitely -- I find the whole partial recount thing funny too (what parts would be recounted, again)?

    It is a tactical move, no doubt, any move they make now will be strategic. It is one of several though --- the repression has been present but a lot lower than what they could use to quell protests. They're offering a lame recount -- they could have chosen to do none of these things. I would like a look inside the Iranian leaders' heads (scary places as most heads are) to see how they are perceiving the situation - how far do they think they would need to go to quell the protests semi-peacefully. What kinds of discussions are being held within the council and with the Ayatollah?

    I agree - the opposition should continue asking for a new election with monitors. I doubt the Iranian government would agree to international observers but neutral observers would be good, regardless.

    Having said that, I wonder how much of a possibility there is for a new election. That would be a pretty large step by the theocracy - acknowledging that they either messed up (encouraged the rigging or skewed the results) or that they don't have complete control of the process (don't control Ahmadinejad supporters).
    Indeed.
    Personally, I can very easily see the Guardian Council shifting the blame onto Ahmadinejad and his supporters, give the people a scapegoat that they can slaughter. However, its really up in the air. It will be very interesting to see what happens.

  10. #20
    Senior Member Feops's Avatar
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    Interesting bit I saw on CBC recently - journalists being told to stay in their hotels and report only what the state media is reporting.

    I do see the logic of blinding international media, but does the local government expect what the state media says to be passed along internationally at face value?

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