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  1. #61
    Senior Member cogdecree's Avatar
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    Thanks for the article, I have no doubt that the world is prepared, vaccines are in the making, Korea (as in my article) and other places I'm assuming are watching travel, but it is still close by to the US and the short term damge will cost lives and money. So some concern should still be felt by the laymen.

  2. #62
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    I also think, aside from the fact that a flu pandemic would crash economies worldwide and lead to great amounts of government intervention and protectionist policies, that this wave of flu may die down then come back in the fall/winter based on some sources I've been hearing. Could go either way. I'm most concerned over Mexico collapsing from the added pressure of a serious Epidemic down there, and people trying to rush across the border to escape.

    Something interesting to note: the 1918 swine flu had a mortality rate of just 2% in the U.S. If the next pandemic were to have such a mortality rate in developed countries (and always higher in less developed countries, like Mexico) it would be devastating. Think about it. The U.S. population is about 300,000,000. If the disease only managed to infect 50% of the population, and kept a 2% mortality rate, that would kill off 3,000,000 people! Something to think about...

  3. #63
    Senior Member Nonsensical's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    I also think, aside from the fact that a flu pandemic would crash economies worldwide and lead to great amounts of government intervention and protectionist policies, that this wave of flu may die down then come back in the fall/winter based on some sources I've been hearing. Could go either way. I'm most concerned over Mexico collapsing from the added pressure of a serious Epidemic down there, and people trying to rush across the border to escape.

    Something interesting to note: the 1918 swine flu had a mortality rate of just 2% in the U.S. If the next pandemic were to have such a mortality rate in developed countries (and always higher in less developed countries, like Mexico) it would be devastating. Think about it. The U.S. population is about 300,000,000. If the disease only managed to infect 50% of the population, and kept a 2% mortality rate, that would kill off 3,000,000 people! Something to think about...
    I don't think this will be as deathly as the Influenza of 1918. First off all, our understanding and knowledge of prevention and awareness is alone enough to keep a lot of people from getting it. We have a few crude medications to treat it with, but they don't work so well.

    I do understand hypothetically what you are saying, though.

    I hypothesize that this thing won't kill too many people, especially in the US. All have recovered so far that have been infected.

    It'll be the elderly, the week, those with health problems, and young children that would be most suseptable to this killer, but other than that, it's really just a bad flu, and the mass majority would get over it soon.
    Is it that by its indefiniteness it shadows forth the heartless voids and immensities of the universe, and thus stabs us from behind with the thought of annihilation, when beholding the white depths of the milky way?

  4. #64
    Minister of Propagandhi ajblaise's Avatar
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    It should probably be noted that the cases of swine flu in the US have been mostly mild, and as of now, only 7 have had to be hospitalized.

    I'm not confident about its potential to crash economies.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by OneWithSoul View Post
    I don't think this will be as deathly as the Influenza of 1918. First off all, our understanding and knowledge of prevention and awareness is alone enough to keep a lot of people from getting it. We have a few crude medications to treat it with, but they don't work so well.

    I do understand hypothetically what you are saying, though.

    I hypothesize that this thing won't kill too many people, especially in the US. All have recovered so far that have been infected.

    It'll be the elderly, the week, those with health problems, and young children that would be most suseptable to this killer, but other than that, it's really just a bad flu, and the mass majority would get over it soon.
    In the U.S.... but it's still killing a lot of people in Mexico for some reason, over 100 so far. No idea why the mortality rate is so different down there, as they are the same flu strain, but it kind of doesn't matter to them because if they get hit hard by a pandemic and nobody else does, they're still in trouble. However, the thought so far by the scientists is that this flu is a combination of swine, bird, and human flu genetics. It is the human parts that have allowed it to make the jump to humans, but they assert that is why the flu has been spreading so slowly. If it mutates in this wave, or goes underground for a while and then mutates to spread more efficiently through humans, then that is when the problem starts.

  6. #66
    Senior Member Nonsensical's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    In the U.S.... but it's still killing a lot of people in Mexico for some reason, over 100 so far. No idea why the mortality rate is so different down there, as they are the same flu strain. However, the thought so far by the scientists is that this flu is a combination of swine, bird, and human flu genetics. It is the human parts that have allowed it to make the jump to humans, but they assert that is why the flu has been spreading so slowly. If it mutates in this wave, or goes underground for a while and then mutates to spread more efficiently through humans, then that is when the problem starts.
    I think it might be becuase of the fact of Mexico's..mediocre health care system, and extreme poverty. Also, many many more people have been infected there than here, so it could be just that there aren't enough cases for deaths...yet. In proportion, it could be equal.

    If this thing mutates, we're in big trouble, that's when it would be like the Influenza of 1918. I have high hopes that this thing will go away, and I kind of have a feeling it might..I don't know why, it's an illogical gut feeling that it's just a storm and that the clouds will move on soon.
    Is it that by its indefiniteness it shadows forth the heartless voids and immensities of the universe, and thus stabs us from behind with the thought of annihilation, when beholding the white depths of the milky way?

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by OneWithSoul View Post
    I think it might be becuase of the fact of Mexico's..mediocre health care system, and extreme poverty. Also, many many more people have been infected there than here, so it could be just that there aren't enough cases for deaths...yet. In proportion, it could be equal.

    If this thing mutates, we're in big trouble, that's when it would be like the Influenza of 1918. I have high hopes that this thing will go away, and I kind of have a feeling it might..I don't know why, it's an illogical gut feeling that it's just a storm and that the clouds will move on soon.
    Yea... I'm betting that it will die down then return at a later date. If that's the case then at least we will have vaccines available at that point, though I will never take one.

  8. #68
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OneWithSoul View Post
    It'll be the elderly, the week, those with health problems, and young children that would be most suseptable to this killer, but other than that, it's really just a bad flu, and the mass majority would get over it soon.
    Strangely, it's actually the middle age range that is likely to be at risk... assuming that it does follow the H1N1 pattern, which is only somewhat known right now.

    Quote Originally Posted by ajblaise View Post
    It should probably be noted that the cases of swine flu in the US have been mostly mild, and as of now, only 7 have had to be hospitalized.

    I'm not confident about its potential to crash economies.
    Heh, it won't until it does. There are two unknown deaths in the US right now, waiting for confirmation. The rest of the "unknowns" are just that - unknown. With the lag time, we won't really know the full picture for a week, simply because of the 3-4 day incubation period. Even though this started over a month ago, the amount of infections has only started recently - within 2-3 incubation 'periods'.

    Think of it this way - a couple of people had it here in Vancouver, and they were through the airport during incubation period and went to see the doctor later. They visited their families, friends... maybe even work, if they hit the timing right. That would be the ~24th. That means that it is only today that it will start to become evident if they spread it. And it we won't know if those people, if they exist, passed it on until the end of this week.

    So, when we say "200 people" infected in the US... well... we don't really know, because it could be the very start of the spread. Exponential increases aren't scary... until they are.

    --

    Re: going underground. I just worry that it will survive until the winter, where transmission becomes much higher.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    Strangely, it's actually the middle age range that is likely to be at risk... assuming that it does follow the H1N1 pattern, which is only somewhat known right now.


    Exactly. This is the kind of virus that can overstimulate a healthy immune system, causing death in the host because of their own immune response. Those with weaker immune systems may be more likely to catch it, but also less likely to die from it.

    Another bit of info I found to be amazing is that Barack Obama was just in Mexico last week. He shook hands with someone down there (some guy who worked at a Museum I think...) who was infected with the swine flu. That same guy he shook hands with died the day after. That's so eery.

  10. #70
    Senior Member Nonsensical's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    Exactly. This is the kind of virus that can overstimulate a healthy immune system, causing death in the host because of their own immune response. Those with weaker immune systems may be more likely to catch it, but also less likely to die from it.

    Another bit of info I found to be amazing is that Barack Obama was just in Mexico last week. He shook hands with someone down there (some guy who worked at a Museum I think...) who was infected with the swine flu. That same guy he shook hands with died the day after. That's so eery.
    Hmm..I sense some BioTerror!!!!
    Is it that by its indefiniteness it shadows forth the heartless voids and immensities of the universe, and thus stabs us from behind with the thought of annihilation, when beholding the white depths of the milky way?

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