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  1. #11
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fluffywolf View Post
    1. propaganda in the media, shows and arguements that have nothing to do with the recession.
    Financial meltdowns and liquidity traps are more than propaganda, it was and is a real risk. It continues to be a big problem - aggregate demand, that is. My industry has been nuked from top to bottom directly as a result of the liquidity issues, and made doubly worse since I work with capital projects.

    2. badly functioning companies/concerns calling for financial support, because of the recession? They say so, but they were shaky before. (Let them burn imo.)
    You need to look deeper than that. Small companies don't get to yell out, but they are hurting just as much, if not more. Large companies just get the time in the light.

    3. What is economy? It's all about consuming. Consuming, consuming, consuming. Even if there are debts right now. It couldn't possible get worse for as long as we keep consuming. Markets shift and renew. It's up to the structures to be flexible enough to go with the flow.
    The economy isn't just about consuming, it's also about producing. These things work in lockstep. The ripple effect of the financial crisis caused an abrupt drop in the demand for labor, and that caused less consumption... until equilibrium. But that cycle is what causes the contraction. It is going on, and will be going on for some time yet... probably about 2 years. That's regardless if the recession ends - it just has to be made up with replacement (a shifting of resources away from the over-heated industries to the new areas of growth).

    But economy crashing? NEVER going to happen.
    Yes, it could happen. Never is not a statement that should be taken seriously - the odds may be bad, but it's certainly possible. It has and will happen.

    People that are 50 years or younger, will now not retire at 65, but at 67 years of age. THAT'S A 15 YEAR PLAN. How is THAT going to have an effect on the recession? It won't.

    But why did they make it part of it? Because they're just abusing the situation to get ideas out and make changes.
    How does them taking advantage of economic downturn to pass changes that might not gain public acceptance make the economic downturn any less real?

    ---

    Having said all that, so far this has been a typical recession. And I would expect it to be ending this year, towards the end of the year. That would be the 'average' recession. Markets are predicting that as well.

  2. #12
    Nips away your dignity Fluffywolf's Avatar
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    As long as there's the will to consume, there's room to produce.

    Producing sector can't fail for as long as they meet the consumers. But if consumers start to become scared and start hoarding in light of the recession. It will directly influence the producing sector.

    Let's say every citizen of america is consuming 1000-10000 dollars less this year because of concerns about the recession. There's suddenly a huge gap of money in- and outcome, that investors can't bridge. Economy is an ongoing process that requires large investments, loans and leases. But if the consumer holds out for a few months, so to speak. Then suddenly that gap of a few months isn't bridgable and structures fall into negative positions. Dragging even healthy, yet heavy investing, companies down with them. But if the people/(companies/economical structures as well) keep consuming in a stable and orderly fashion. Then the market can, and will pull through.

    The problem was with the banks, and could have stayed with the banks. But because banks started to get careful, and consumers hesitant. The structures between those two are suffering needlessly.

  3. #13
    Nerd King Usurper Edgar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fluffywolf View Post
    As long as there's the will to consume, there's room to produce.

    Producing sector can't fail for as long as they meet the consumers. But if consumers start to become scared and start hoarding in light of the recession. It will directly influence the producing sector.

    Let's say every citizen of america is consuming 1000-10000 dollars less this year because of concerns about the recession. There's suddenly a huge gap of money in- and outcome, that investors can't bridge. Economy is an ongoing process that requires large investments, loans and leases. But if the consumer holds out for a few months, so to speak. Then suddenly that gap of a few months isn't bridgable and structures fall into negative positions. Dragging even healthy, yet heavy investing, companies down with them. But if the people/(companies/economical structures as well) keep consuming in a stable and orderly fashion. Then the market can, and will pull through.

    The problem was with the banks, and could have stayed with the banks. But because banks started to get careful, and consumers hesitant. The structures between those two are suffering needlessly.
    Consumers get their loans from the banks. So if the banks have a problem, they won't be lending to consumers as much. Hence bank problem becomes a consumer problem.
    Listen to me, baby, you got to understand, you're old enough to learn the makings of a man.

  4. #14
    Nips away your dignity Fluffywolf's Avatar
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    The industry I work in has been suffering for the past ten years due to government induced unhealthy competition in form of subsidised alternatives that function in such a model that those that take part in it can fraude their way to riches, without giving the market the quality it deserves, causing the consumers to loose their faith in the product to turn to other alternatives. (Taxi company).

    I was forced to turn into other lanes, because the entire taxi market in the netherlands is now beyond repair, because of a single descision in the 'second chamber' (Dutch variant of the white house. :P )

  5. #15
    Nips away your dignity Fluffywolf's Avatar
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    True Edgar, but my point is that this recession has gone beyond that. I've invested more this year then any other, because well, what better time to invest then during a recession. But my point it, the financial bodies should have kept going as well. Wisely, sure. But in a growing economy. The money will come back. Instead they just totally halted. And that was just the wrong descision that caused the whole ruckus.

  6. #16
    Nerd King Usurper Edgar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fluffywolf View Post
    True Edgar, but my point is that this recession has gone beyond that. I've invested more this year then any other, because well, what better time to invest then during a recession. But my point it, the financial bodies should have kept going as well. Wisely, sure. But in a growing economy. The money will come back. Instead they just totally halted. And that was just the wrong descision that caused the whole ruckus.
    I think you are making the mistake that a lot of economists make, which is to expect markets to operate "rationally". Markets operate under human psychology and we all know that people don't always act rationally.

    When things were going good, people went nuts and levereged the shit out of everything - and when things went sour because of over-leverage, people went nuts and started cutting costs and hoarding as if the zombie apocalypse was coming.

    I am glad to see that some positive news are coming out in the press (whether they are true or not) because hopefully it will calm people down and they will go back to acting more rationally.
    Listen to me, baby, you got to understand, you're old enough to learn the makings of a man.

  7. #17
    Nips away your dignity Fluffywolf's Avatar
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    Well, yeah, not really making the mistake. Just frustrated that it's such an influence in places where it doesn't belong, in my opinion. ;(

  8. #18
    Nerd King Usurper Edgar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fluffywolf View Post
    Well, yeah, not really making the mistake. Just frustrated that it's such an influence in places where it doesn't belong, in my opinion. ;(
    Does stench belong on my finger after I scratch my butt? No... but it's still there anyway.
    Listen to me, baby, you got to understand, you're old enough to learn the makings of a man.

  9. #19
    Nips away your dignity Fluffywolf's Avatar
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    Great metaphor.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by ajblaise View Post
    There's been lots of good economic news in the last couple days, with positive signs that we will ward off a real depression and that the recession might be coming to an end soon.
    Impossible. The Obama-pocalypse is here.

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