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  1. #11
    Minister of Propagandhi ajblaise's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by InaF3157 View Post
    Except this ain't quite the nineties - this administration has greater challenges that make the type of fiscal responsibility to which they pay lip service decidedly more difficult to accomplish. And he's no Clinton. Look at who bears the new tax burdens. The spending outlined in the budget is off the charts -- greater scope and depth than in Clinton's more centrist, less populist administration.

    Then again, a good chunk of the proposed spending probably won't go through, but still.
    Yeah Obama probably won't have a Republican majority in the House or Senate to deal with. But Clinton raised taxes on the highest income brackets, which is what Obama plans to do. Clinton also made tax cuts, with Obama doing the same. I think his administration will turn out mostly center-leftist, and further to the left than Clinton was.


    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    Ironically, they'll reject improvements to the employment insurance/welfare systems. That'll be supporting their voters. That are likely to lose their jobs. Curious who ends up getting the blame for that, or if those that do lose their jobs change their tune on it making people lazy. Probably not.

    Jindal was utterly hillarious to listen to though.

    /me finds the whole thing deeply amusing
    Oh yeah that's a tough one. When re-election comes around, the last thing Republicans want on their record is total support of the stimulus plan. Catch-22 as I see it. Possibly genius political maneuvering, or just a happy consequence, on the Democrats part, to be able to put Republicans in this position.

  2. #12
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ajblaise View Post
    Oh yeah that's a tough one. When re-election comes around, the last thing Republicans want on their record is total support of the stimulus plan. Catch-22 as I see it. Possibly genius political maneuvering, or just a happy consequence, on the Democrats part, to be able to put Republicans in this position.
    They should of done what they always do - just denounce it with no substance. I mean, common, pretending to stand for something is totally different standing up for something... they should know how action is bad. Especially when you aren't even standing up for something, and just pretending. *shakes head* Not the wisest tactical choice. Again, much irony on this as most of those states receive net transfers from the Fed.

    Course, each does more harm to themselves than to Obama, but a thousand little harms hurts his image. I'd say it's intentional, but... Jindal is suppose to be a potential candidate. I mean, common, really.

    At this rate I'm going to have to revise my opinion of humanity down yet again.

  3. #13
    now! in shell form INA's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ajblaise View Post
    Yeah Obama probably won't have a Republican majority in the House or Senate to deal with. But Clinton raised taxes on the highest income brackets, which is what Obama plans to do. Clinton also made tax cuts, with Obama doing the same. I think his administration will turn out mostly center-leftist, and further to the left than Clinton was.
    Not all tax cuts or higher levels taxation are created equally. You can't just say: "hey, he raised taxes for the highest incomes, too" and leave it at that. magnitude and scale? who benefits and what do they do with it? Purpose and probable outcome of the tax cut? What does it accomplish?
    Plus, it's not just what he will do, although that certainly is important. It's also what he's inherited, which is a clusterfuck of a higher order.
    And this is why the proclamation that he'll halve the deficit makes me chuckle, "good one!"
    -over and out-
    /pessimist
    hoarding time and space
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  4. #14
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by InaF3157 View Post
    And this is why the proclamation that he'll halve the deficit makes me chuckle, "good one!"
    From what I have seen, it's a reasonable projection. It's not like he's going to wipe out debt or anything, just grow it slower. A lot less than Clinton.

    Overall though, it depends on the economy. Tax receipts are going to be shrinking, I think.

  5. #15
    now! in shell form INA's Avatar
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    It seems less far-fetched if they actually cut as proposed, but I don't see how they're going to do that on the allotted time-table. As popular as it is to scream for the rich (generously defined) to be taxed MOAR, I don't think that's going to cover it. And where else will they get the money?
    hoarding time and space
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  6. #16
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by InaF3157 View Post
    It seems less far-fetched if they actually cut as proposed, but I don't see how they're going to do that on the allotted time-table. As popular as it is to scream for the rich (generously defined) to be taxed MOAR, I don't think that's going to cover it. And where else will they get the money?
    It'll take a while to make the adjustments, but I don't see the time table being a problem - afterall, he only has to reduce spending and increase revenues until the net deficit is at 50%... and even that number depends on when you measure it. Not gonna be easy, and relies on the economy improving (IMO), but still doable.

  7. #17
    Habitual Fi LineStepper JocktheMotie's Avatar
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    The thing that gets me about the plan is how quickly it anticipates economic recovery. The administration's prediction is DOUBLE the Congressional Budget Offices's prediction and 50% higher than Blue Chip Index's prediction, not to mention it underestimates the downturn this year by 1 point in relation to the other two predictions.

    Basically, if everything happens perfectly and no extra money is needed, the budget will be halved. Color me not optimistic.



  8. #18
    now! in shell form INA's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    It'll take a while to make the adjustments, but I don't see the time table being a problem - afterall, he only has to reduce spending and increase revenues until the net deficit is at 50%... and even that number depends on when you measure it. Not gonna be easy, and relies on the economy improving (IMO), but still doable.
    bolded the sticking point, especially as centerpieces of the plan are taxing those over $250K (hello! not rich!) and "streamlining government"

    Doable, yeah, and ambition doesn't hurt, but sounds like cynical politicking to me. Luckily i needn't hold my breath.
    hoarding time and space
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  9. #19
    Minister of Propagandhi ajblaise's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JocktheMotie View Post
    The thing that gets me about the plan is how quickly it anticipates economic recovery. The administration's prediction is DOUBLE the Congressional Budget Offices's prediction and 50% higher than Blue Chip Index's prediction, not to mention it underestimates the downturn this year by 1 point in relation to the other two predictions.

    Basically, if everything happens perfectly and no extra money is needed, the budget will be halved. Color me not optimistic.
    They are playing up the best-case scenario that has a chance of happening. Any President has to take market psyche into the equation. So realism and optimism has to be combined in a way. Though a common outlook from economists is that the recession might end this year, or sometime in 2010. All within his first term.

  10. #20
    Habitual Fi LineStepper JocktheMotie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ajblaise View Post
    They are playing up the best-case scenario that has a chance of happening. Any President has to take market psyche into the equation. So realism and optimism has to be combined in a way. Though a common outlook from economists is that the recession might end this year, or sometime in 2010. All within his first term.
    Yeah I do consider the importance of confidence. That could be everything. Even if his plan does employ people, if people hunker down and don't buy anything it's not going to do much. And I have heard the recovery could begin around 2010, and that's a good sign.



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