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  1. #21
    Senior Member reason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pure_mercury View Post
    He's the President and Founder of the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, AL. One of the preeminent paleolibertarians in the world. I am not a solid fan, but it was an interesting time. I met Ron Paul, Justin Raimondo, and Alexander Cockburn that weekend, too.
    I am less than a 1 hour drive from the Mises Institute. Never heard of Justin Raimondo or Alexander Cockburn (but what a fantastic name!). Must have been interesting though. I want to go and find Roger Garrison at Aurbun; there are some interesting lectures on Mises.org from him about monetary policy and the business cycle. My professor from macroeconomics last year was one of his ex-students.
    A criticism that can be brought against everything ought not to be brought against anything.

  2. #22
    Order Now! pure_mercury's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reason View Post
    Alexander Cockburn (but what a fantastic name!).
    He pronounces it "COH-burn."


    Must have been interesting though.
    It was a helluva conference. I was drunk on Blanton's bourbon basically the whole time. Shut the hotel bar down with some of the older cats. Lots of time in the pool and steam room.
    Who wants to try a bottle of merc's "Extroversion Olive Oil?"

  3. #23
    Glowy Goopy Goodness The_Liquid_Laser's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reason View Post
    Liquid,

    There is a set of true statements about the future. Whatever the members of that set, we cannot change them (if we changed a member, then it would never have been a member to begin with). No statements that are not members of that set are possibly true, even though they may be consistent with physical law. If they are not members of the set, then they are false, and therefore, impossible. It is not possible for a false statement to be true.
    This sounds like you have determinism as an underlying assumption.


    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    Your choice. They all use different methods, obviously, and they don't reveal the specifics behind their thoughts as most of the time when you speak to a general audience you keep things in simple terms. Either way, the big picture most/all of them present still applies. And for the record, Peter Schiff (the first guy you couldnt stand) predicted the recession and bursting of the housing bubble back in 2006. I don't remember oil spiking up all the way back then. Results trump personal (yours) idealogical conflictions my friend.
    Predicting that there will be a recession in the future is a meaningless prediction. Here let me make a prediction, "There will be another recession in the future". That sort of prediction is not interesting. What I am interested in is

    a) How close was he at predicting the right time?

    b) If he was fairly close, then how did he do it?
    My wife and I made a game to teach kids about nutrition. Please try our game and vote for us to win. (Voting period: July 14 - August 14)
    http://www.revoltingvegetables.com

  4. #24
    Senior Member reason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Liquid_Laser View Post
    This sounds like you have determinism as an underlying assumption.
    There is nothing 'underlying' about it, unless it's lying on top of itself. But in any case, unless you disagree that there exist true statements about the future, then so are you a determinist, or at least if you value logical consistency you should be. Although, I note here to preempt unwarranted assumptions, I do not subscribe to ethical determinism. That is as innane as metaphysical free will (which, afterall, demands that no true statements can be made about what decisions people will make).
    A criticism that can be brought against everything ought not to be brought against anything.

  5. #25
    The elder Holmes Mycroft's Avatar
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    Reason, please demonstrate how the statement "It's possible to make statements about the future which turn out to be true" necessarily means the future is set in stone.
    Dost thou love Life? Then do not squander Time; for that's the Stuff Life is made of.

    -- Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard's Almanack, June 1746 --

  6. #26
    Senior Member reason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
    Reason, please demonstrate how the statement "It's possible to make statements about the future which turn out to be true" necessarily means the future is set in stone.
    Statements about the future do not "turn out to be true". If they are about the future and true, then they are already true. It's like a true statement about New York: it will not "turn out to be true" when you get there, but is true even if you never go there at all. It is simply true, by definition, and since the future will be one way or another, there must be statements which describe it.

    Whatever statements about the future have the property of being true, must be true already. And there is nothing anyone can do to change it. If a statement were changed from true to false, then it would never have been true in the first place, and therefore, never a member of that set. None of this is meant to suggest that we can confirm, verify, or "know" which of these statements are true. But our inability to confirm which statements have the property of being true does not preclude some of them being true.

    It's like the old 'if God is omnipotent, then there is no free will, because he must know already what you are going to do' argument. But it actually doesn't matter whether God exists or is omnipotent. Even if God were not omnipotent, but nonetheless happened to believe in all these true statements (he might know nothing at all even though everything he believes is true), we're in the same kind of territory.

    Can I, for example, believe true statements about what decisions you will make tomorrow? (forget whether I can know, just concentrate on my being right or wrong). Since there are statements which can describe all possible decisions you will make tomorrow, it is possible for me to believe they are true now (because they are already true: if I could somehow confirm which to believe, then I would know, in the classical sense, everything you were going to do).

    But would I be depriving you of any personal responsibility for your choices because I predicted what you would decide? Of course not. Most importantly, it is impossible for me to believe true statements about your decisions if you do not really make any decisions (as ethical determinists erroneously claim). So you make your own decisions, are responsible for them, and determinism is true, right?
    A criticism that can be brought against everything ought not to be brought against anything.

  7. #27
    The elder Holmes Mycroft's Avatar
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    The rather noteworthy difference being that any statements I make about New York I make about an entity which exists presently and, consequently, has observable and definable qualities.

    For whatever reason, time in this universe proceeds in a single direction. Anything said about the future is a prediction. In time, it may prove to be true, but until such a time, it is a statement and nothing more.
    Dost thou love Life? Then do not squander Time; for that's the Stuff Life is made of.

    -- Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard's Almanack, June 1746 --

  8. #28
    Guerilla Urbanist Brendan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    I thought it'd be prudent, at this point, to start noting the people who have been and are accurately foretelling the direction of the economy because lets face it; an extremely small number of people were actually able to see what hit us, much less give the reasons why we got hit.
    Dude, that sentiment's ridiculous. On NPR they'd been predicting a recession 2 years ago and earlier. The saying goes that economists have accurately predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions.
    There is no such thing as separation from God.

  9. #29
    Senior Member reason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
    The rather noteworthy difference being that any statements I make about New York I make about an entity which exists presently and, consequently, has observable and definable qualities.

    For whatever reason, time in this universe proceeds in a single direction. Anything said about the future is a prediction. In time, it may prove to be true, but until such a time, it is a statement and nothing more.
    So only statements about this precise moment are true? What about statements about the past? And what does observability have to do with anything? Would a statement cease to be true because nobody existed or everyone was blind or nobody cared to observe? Some statements are about the future, and they either correspond to the facts of the future or they do not. Some must be true, because all cannot be false (can P and not-P be false simultaneously?).

    You keep conflating the truth of a statement with our ability to observe or prove that it is true. But that is irrelevent. And I pre-emptively responded to such an objection in my previous posts. And what the word 'definable' is doing in your post I do not understand; qualities are definable regardless of whether they can be observed (come to think of it, what is an undefinable quality?).
    A criticism that can be brought against everything ought not to be brought against anything.

  10. #30
    Occasional Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reason View Post
    So only statements about this precise moment are true? What about statements about the past? And what does observability have to do with anything? Would a statement cease to be true because nobody existed or everyone was blind or nobody cared to observe? Some statements are about the future, and they either correspond to the facts of the future or they do not. Some must be true, because all cannot be false (can P and not-P be false simultaneously?).

    You keep conflating the truth of a statement with our ability to observe or prove that it is true. But that is irrelevent. And I pre-emptively responded to such an objection in my previous posts. And what the word 'definable' is doing in your post I do not understand; qualities are definable regardless of whether they can be observed (come to think of it, what is an undefinable quality?).
    Like TLL said, your reasoning only works if you're a determinist. (Or vice versa.)

    I'm a determinist, so I totally agree.

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