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  1. #1
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    Default Mexico could face a collapse

    Newsmax.com - U.S. Military: Mexico Could Collapse Under Drug Violence

    U.S. Military: Mexico Could Collapse Under Drug Violence

    Wednesday, January 14, 2009 2:56 PM

    By: Jim Meyers Article Font Size


    Mexico is in danger of a “rapid and sudden collapse” due to criminal gangs and drug cartels, according to a troubling new report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

    The report also cites Pakistan as a nation facing possible collapse.

    “In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Forces and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico,” the report states.

    [Editor’s Note: To read the report by U.S. Joint Forces Command on Mexico and other global hotspots - Go Here Now]

    “The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels.”

    The outcome of that internal conflict in America’s southern neighbor will have a “major impact on the stability of the Mexican state” over the next several years, according to the Joint Forces Command, a Defense Department combat command that includes different military service branches, active and reserves, according to the El Paso Times.

    The report warns that “any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”

    As Newsmax reported last week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the U.S. has developed plans for a “surge” in crime fighters if the drug wars in Mexico should spread across the border.

    The plans call for aircraft, armored vehicles and special teams to converge on trouble spots along the border. Military forces would be used if civilian agencies like the Border Patrol and local law enforcement were unable to control the violence.

    In the Joint Forces report, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis said: “If we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America.”

    Criminal activity in Mexico has killed more than 5,300 people in the past year, including members of warring drug cartels, law enforcement officials and bystanders, many of them slain close to the U.S. border.
    I'm curious if anyone here can guess just how bad that would be and the implications of such a thing happening, without my having to say it...

    Not to mention the report states that the nuclear armed Pakistan is MORE likely to collapse.

  2. #2
    Nerd King Usurper Edgar's Avatar
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    Maybe if they would just legalize marijuana, some of those criminal assholes would be forced to look for a non-criminal job.

  3. #3
    Senior Member ThatsWhatHeSaid's Avatar
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    A collapse would be terrible now, especially considering how well they're doing.


  4. #4
    Minister of Propagandhi ajblaise's Avatar
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    It's not going to happen.

    NewsMax never met a sensationalist news story it didn't like.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by ajblaise View Post
    It's not going to happen.

    NewsMax never met a sensationalist news story it didn't like.
    The story is running on a multitude of different news organizations smart guy -_- .

  6. #6
    Minister of Propagandhi ajblaise's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    The story is running on a multitude of different news organizations smart guy -_- .
    And?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by ajblaise View Post
    And?
    If you have something intelligent to add, I'll hold my breath for you.

    Anyway, Reuters has a good assessment over this U.S. Joint Forces command report.

    The Great Debate

    January 7th, 2009
    Pakistan, Mexico and U.S. nightmares
    Posted by: Bernd Debusmann

    Bernd Debusmann - Great Debate– Bernd Debusmann is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. –

    What do Pakistan and Mexico have in common? They figure in the nightmares of U.S. military planners trying to peer into the future and identify the next big threats.

    The two countries are mentioned in the same breath in a just-published study by the United States Joint Forces Command, whose jobs include providing an annual look into the future to prevent the U.S. military from being caught off guard by unexpected developments.

    “In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico,” says the study - Joint Operating Environment 2008 - in a chapter on “weak and failing states.” Such states, it says, usually pose chronic, long-term problems that can be managed over time.

    But the little-studied phenomenon of “rapid collapse,” according to the study, “usually comes as a surprise, has a rapid onset, and poses acute problems.” Think Yugoslavia and its 1990 disintegration into a chaotic tangle of warring nationalities and bloodshed on a horrific scale.

    Nuclear-armed Pakistan, where al-Qaeda has established safe havens in the rugged regions bordering on Afghanistan, is a regular feature in dire warnings. Thomas Fingar, who retired as the U.S.’s chief intelligence analyst in December, termed Pakistan “one of the single most challenging places on the planet.”

    This is fairly routine language for Pakistan, but not for Mexico, which shares a 2,000-mile border with the nightmare-pakistan_mexico-wUnited States.

    Mexico’s mention beside Pakistan in a study by an organization as weighty as the Joint Forces Command (which controls almost all conventional forces based in the continental U.S.) speaks volumes about growing concern over what’s happening south of the U.S. border.

    Vicious and widening violence pitting drug cartels against each other and against the Mexican state have left more than 8,000 Mexicans dead over the past two years. Kidnappings have become a routine part of Mexican daily life. Common crime is widespread. Pervasive corruption has hollowed out the state.

    In November, in a case that shocked even those (on both sides of the border) who consider corruption endemic in Mexico, former drug czar Noe Ramirez was charged with accepting at least $450,000 a month in bribes from a drug cartel in exchange for information about police and anti-narcotics operations.

    A month later, a Mexican army major, Arturo Gonzalez, was arrested on suspicion he sold information about President Felipe Calderon’s movements for $100,000 a month. Gonzalez belonged to a special unit responsible for protecting the president.

    DESCENT INTO CHAOS?

    Depending on one’s view, the arrests are successes in a publicly-declared anti-corruption drive or evidence of how deeply criminal mafias have penetrated the organs of the state.

    According to the Joint Forces study, the possibility of a sudden collapse in Mexico is less likely than in Pakistan “but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state.”

    It added: “Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”

    What form such a response might take is anyone’s guess and the study does not spell it out, nor does it address the economic implications of its worst-case scenario. Mexico is the third biggest trade partner of the United States (after Canada and China) and its third-biggest supplier of oil (after Canada and Saudi Arabia).

    No such ties bind the United States and Pakistan but the study sees a collapse there not only as more likely but also as more catastrophic.

    It would bring “the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That ‘perfect storm’ of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger … and with the real possibility that nuclear weapons might be used.”

    It is not clear where on the long list of actual and potential crises around the world Mexico and Pakistan will rank once Barack Obama takes office as U.S. president on Jan. 20. During the election campaign, Obama repeatedly criticized Pakistan for not cracking down hard enough on terrorists inside its borders.

    Since then a new Pakistani president came to power. Not long after, tensions between Pakistan and India, also a nuclear power, rose sharply after gunmen attacked two luxury hotels and other sites in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, and killed 179 people. India described the attack as a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan and carried out by Pakistanis.

    Closer to home, the U.S. economic crisis looks likely to slow down a $1.4 billion assistance program (military equipment, training, technology) to help the Mexican government gain the upper hand over the drug cartels and re-establish control over what some have called “failed cities” along the border, places where shootouts, beheadings and kidnappings have become routine.

    It would take a very rosy outlook on the future to expect rapid progress.

    For previous columns by Bernd Debusmann, click here. You can contact the author at Debusmann@reuters.com.

  8. #8
    brat Mitzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThatsWhatHeSaid View Post
    A collapse would be terrible now, especially considering how well they're doing.


    looks like LA to me
    She talks pretty but says mean things

  9. #9
    Nerd King Usurper Edgar's Avatar
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    Why does that donkey have a beard?

  10. #10
    Senior Member ThatsWhatHeSaid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edgar View Post
    Why does that donkey have a beard?
    It's a bandana, not a beard, because that donkey, that little innocent helpless donkey, just robbed Mother Earth of her plush wood. Why do you think that kid is running away from it in fear? That's the kind of depravity that poverty causes. It's a sad day when fugitive donkeys -- okay, enough.

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