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  1. #31
    Senior Member Maabus1999's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Metamorphosis View Post
    So which part of my statement is wrong? I said they wouldn't fail because we would be forced to bail them out. I don't see how our two posts are incompatible.
    I'm reading this quickly so if I assume anything wrong from your discussion, I apologize. First off, the problems can not be solved directly by money because there is no amount the US could pump in that could compete with the money that flows through the underground. But lets go further, it is more then money now. It is power. It is "tribal" again with many sides. Anarchy already exists in truth in Mexico outside of the main cities and tourist areas where the government concentrates its security forces (similar to Pakistan).

    Plus the "legal" economy of Mexico is in shambles. It has a much worse issue of maldistribution of wealth then the US does. So the true way to get anywhere in Mexico is to become part of the aristocracy or join a gang/cartel up north or a revolutionary warlord/rebel group in the south. While money infusions could try to prop up the economy to stop the surge towards the later groups, the corruption level is already to high to be done effectively.

    You would honestly need "peace keepers" combined with foreign oversight to get just to start getting things turned around. And I'm not the biggest fan of the UN or the IMF who would be the two to take that role.

  2. #32
    Senior Member Maabus1999's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nozflubber View Post
    The Pentagon and DOD prepare for ALL situations, all contingencies, but that doesn't mean they are going to happen. Our government just takes the busines of being prepared THAT seriously.

    anotehr case in point: The theoretical death yield of one canister of Airborne Botulin toxin released into the atmosphere is every last human on the planet (and every mammal for that matter). The probablity of this happening? I forget, but it has something like 50 0's after the decimal point. However, since it is POSSIBLE, the United States government and the UN attempt to control for it anyway, just because they like playing it that safe.

    Risen my friend, you really need to learn to distinguish between the "worst-case scenarios" the Pentagon has research teams address and that which is likely to happen.
    You are correct in this assertion about scenario planning (most though are 20 years old, we aren't making as many modern ones as we did in the 80's) but this is a different type of report.

    This is not a "red team" scenario game which is what you would be referring too for contingency planning. This is an actual report that describes what areas are deteriorating the most around the world and will have the largest impact on US national security. This is a much more serious type of report ( have to see how often they do this type of report but it has been done before, though under different names as things get reorganized.)

  3. #33
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    Another article describing the possible situation.

    FOXNews.com - Will Mexico Bring Down the U.S.? - Glenn Beck


    Will Mexico Bring Down the U.S.?

    Thursday, January 29, 2009
    By Glenn Beck

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    Everybody else is talking about how bad the economy is. But here's the one thing: No one can see the bigger picture. I'll show you what I mean.

    At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin called for the world economy to stop using the dollar, because he claims it's not safe or reliable anymore.

    Next, Venezuela is funding FARC rebels in Colombia. How long before Hugo Chavez decides to go after a country closer to ours?

    Also, the U.S. economy is in trouble, because we're printing money Ś like with this $819 billion spending package Ś and we can't afford to keep doing it.

    And, something no one else is talking about: Mexico is spinning out of control. It is the linchpin in this whole mess, which Iĺll explain in a minute.

    What does this all add up to? It looks like this for the United States, when the Soviet Union collapsed.

    Why could Mexico be the key? The biggest economic factor there is oil and Mexico needs it at $70 a barrel to balance its budget. Last I checked, oil is at around $40 a barrel. They're locked into a $70 dollar a barrel-rate until the end of the year. But if oil had to be sold at today's prices, almost 20 percent of the government's budget would disappear.

    Second biggest factor: remittances. People sending back money from other countries are down 3 percent.

    And third factor is tourism, which is down dramatically. They've seen 580,000 fewer tourists than a year ago just in the seven-largest cities, which could add up to hundreds of millions of dollars in losses.

    Can't you just hear people say "Mexico is too big to fail"? And who else but the United States would have to bail them out?

    You need to step outside yourself and think about recent history. Right after 9/11, Usama bin Laden said Ś and Iĺm paraphrasing Ś it'll be easier crushing the Americans than it was taking down the Soviets.

    I was just like you thinking, "You've got to be kidding me! Taking credit for the collapse of the Soviet Union?" That was President Reagan and the United States along with Margaret Thatcher.
    Column Archive

    * Will Mexico Bring Down the U.S.?
    * Congress Using Fuzzy Math?
    * Congress Cares About Bailing Out Its Buddies, Not Helping You
    * Obama Stimulus Package Really Socialism?
    * Holding Elected Officials Accountable

    Full-page The One Thing Archive

    But when you really think about it, it was the U.S. putting economic pressure on them and holding their feet to the fire. Meanwhile the pope was sowing seeds of discontent inside their country so they would rip themselves apart.

    Then there's Usama bin Laden. Funded by us, keeping them in a war in Afghanistan. And then we just kept building up arms.

    Do any of these scenarios seem familiar?

    What happened there is happening to us. And we're so arrogant that we think we never could collapse.

    We are bleeding to death and there is no tourniquet.

  4. #34
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    This problem has an incredibly simple solution, legalize drugs. Police, military, and politicians are bribed with drug money. Gangs can afford massive amounts of weaponry because of drug money. The only way to get rid of their drug money is to eliminate their market. More force only escalates the situation, it doesn't permanently solve anything. Once the current dealers are dead or in prison, more will rise to take their place because the market is still there.
    "We grow up thinking that´╗┐ beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are´╗┐ easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of´╗┐ a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    This problem has an incredibly simple solution, legalize drugs. Police, military, and politicians are bribed with drug money. Gangs can afford massive amounts of weaponry because of drug money. The only way to get rid of their drug money is to eliminate their market. More force only escalates the situation, it doesn't permanently solve anything. Once the current dealers are dead or in prison, more will rise to take their place because the market is still there.
    I agree. The government is inadvertently creating the black market. However, it's greater than that considering how great the crime mentality and corruption is. They even have kidnapping trades down there. It is truly 3rd world.

    This is an interview done with a CIA agent.
    [youtube="wU18XUQJrvU"]America's Number Two Threat Is Mexico, Says the CIA [/youtube]

    [youtube="SpEhueqT7to"]Perfect Storm, Mexico Collapse[/youtube]


    [youtube="7YMPv8nAcDk"] The Border[/youtube]

  6. #36
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    The most frustrating part of this is, the US government is only going to throw money at the problem and nothing will be resolved. We'll see a temporary reduction in violence, at best. Anti-drug people will never, ever admit that legalizing drugs is most practical decision we could make.
    "We grow up thinking that´╗┐ beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are´╗┐ easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of´╗┐ a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  7. #37
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    If situation becomes bad enough large parts of Mexico could fall into anarchy.
    Even if central government remains standing. .


    If that scenario comes to reality would that mean that US will have to intervene by sending a military over the border?
    Or it would be more efficient to completly close/block the border?

  8. #38
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Given how our government handles things, we'll certainly send troops across the border. We should do that along with cutting the financial legs out from under the drug dealers (by legalizing drugs), but of course that won't happen. We'll just be sending more kids into an impossible situation.
    "We grow up thinking that´╗┐ beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are´╗┐ easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of´╗┐ a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    Will Mexico Bring Down the U.S.?
    In many ways they already are, especially with the hordes of Mexicans flooding into our country.

  10. #40
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peguy View Post
    In many ways they already are, especially with the hordes of Mexicans flooding into our country.
    Mexicans came to the US because our economy was booming and business owners were willing to hire them. I fail to see how this could bring the country down.
    "We grow up thinking that´╗┐ beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are´╗┐ easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of´╗┐ a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

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