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Thread: The Future

  1. #1
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    Default The Future

    I always have been adamant in posting the information that I feel is important, and creating threads where people can discuss it and debate it if they wish. At this point, my own vision dictates to me that as far as the economy and direction of the country in general is concerned, we are headed toward some very difficult times that we have gone past the point of being able to avoid. I have said this many times, and posted many articles that suggest/support the same, and provided many interviews and talk show segments with credible people who have been right on many issues in the years I've heard them talk. Particularly when it comes to the current economic situation.

    You may of course feel free to debate any information I feel the need to post. However, at this point, I think it is less important to debate for debate's sake, and more important to intellectually asses what is being said, it's validity, and it's implications; then for those who are so inclined, to lend an ear and perhaps make whatever preparations and precautions they feel are necessary.

    This is an interview with someone I have heard speak for quite some time, and I know for a fact he has predicted the current economic collapse as well as many other economic trends in the past. I know he is credible, and his credibility has shot up quite a lot in the mainstream media due to the current situation. He's a bit on the doom and gloom side... but life gets gloomy sometimes.


    part 1- YouTube - 1st part: Economic trends. Gerald Celente. 12/11/2008
    part2- http://www.youtube.com/v/AiONFbymHP8&hl=en&fs=1
    part 3- YouTube - 3rd part: Economic trends. Gerald Celente. 12/11/2008
    part 4- YouTube - 4th part: Economic trends. Gerald Celente. 12/11/2008


    ***If anyone can tell me how to embed youtube videos, I shall thank you many times over :P ***

  2. #2
    DoubleplusUngoodNonperson
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    I think you admitting there's abundance of "gloom and doom" should be sufficient to rethink your opinion on the matter :P passion clouds sound Judgement afterall, my fell Thinker!

    Yes there are a lot of changes going on right now. Make no mistake about it, this is the time when a lot of people will get a lot poorer and a few people will get a lot richer. However, let's put things in perspective:

    Could you get a job, any job at all, tomorrow if you wanted to?
    Can you go to the local fast food restaurant and take advantage of the dollar value menu?
    Do you have clean, running water going into your home or place of residence?
    If you are a student, have you still been going to classes? Did the Department of Education fold when the credit markets buckled?
    Do you have a phone to call your mother and tell her you love her?
    Do you see women and children in "Bread lines" just to get food?
    Are you still taking your medication(s)? I hope so.... :p

    Even though it's rhetoric used by Bush, but think about the fundamentals that really make an economy tick (everything mentioned above), then there's no real reason for the sky to fall - the only thing we really have to fear is a panic.... or if you invest like I do, the ONLY factor we have to consider to make money is to consider under what conditions people panic :p

    I think volcker has summarized it best: the REAL problem in the world right now is that we have too many bankers, investers, service-oriented sectors and we don't have enough scientists, construction workers, engineers or farmers. Money doesn't exist (it's a psychological instrument) supplies and demands do, so when we essentially have "paper money built on paper money", it can whisp away in a very short time. The bubble has popped as it has to.

    I don't think it'll be that bad, except for a minority heavily invested in the human realms of banking and mortgages. The wheels of industry and commerce are still turning

  3. #3
    Senior Member LostInNerSpace's Avatar
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    There will be some short term pain. The only way out of this mess is to "create wealth" by stepping up production. All the aggregate demand, marginal revenue product, and employment equilibrium terminology ties my brain in knots. Let's keep it simple. We need to get people back to work producing things that people want buy. Approximately 70% of GDP in the United States consumer driven spending. Consumers have been spending too much on their credit cards and through mortgage equity withdrawals--using rising home values as personal ATMs (source of cash). That source of spending is gone. It has no power to drive the economy going forward. As the economy slides deeper into recession, consumers are losing jobs and defaulting on borrowed money.

    The only viable long term solution out is to put money in people's pockets by getting them back to work. Personally I don't think the government directly distributing cash payments to consumers is a productive solution. It's better it invest that cash in strategic assets that can produce over an extended period of time.

    For example, we could use $100 billion to open alternative energy factories and to build clean fuel infrastructure, which will put a lot of people back to work, vs. distributing that $100 billion in the form of onetime cash payments to individuals. The later is a very short sighted solution but also the most voter friendly. The former requires some short term pain while the projects are being setup. That pain is coming. The longer we put it off, the more we will suffer.


    Can someone ban me, please? The time I waste on this forum is time I'm not producing. My marginal revenue product is not even close to potential marginal demand.

  4. #4
    Minister of Propagandhi ajblaise's Avatar
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    The economy will pick up in 1-2 years. Since the financial crisis, I've heard some well laid out theories from economists on how this isn't exactly the end of the world.

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    The economy moves in cycles, as it has done for the last few hundred years. Those who made the proper decisions will prosper at the expense of those who didn't.

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    Senior Member LostInNerSpace's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ajblaise View Post
    The economy will pick up in 1-2 years. Since the financial crisis, I've heard some well laid out theories from economists on how this isn't exactly the end of the world.
    The economy will recover eventually but will we be faced with a new world order? The last time we had a shift in the world order was after World War II. Europe was in pieces and the rebuilding was going to be very expensive. The Brenton Wood Accord moved us to the gold standard. Guess who had the largest stock pile of Gold (unless you count Nazi gold in Swiss bank vaults)? At that point the world order shifted from from Pax-Britannica to Pax-Americana. We are no longer have the Gold Standard but the modern day equivalent would be the $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund that China is sitting atop.

    The United States still has the upper hand for now. It was not so long ago that the Soviet Union was a super power. Of course the US economy is nowhere near as bad as the USSR before its collapse.

    If the world order does tilt in favor of China, would it really be a "relative time of peace" (Pax-) given that China is a command economy?

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    Senior Member LostInNerSpace's Avatar
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    It may not be such a bad idea to distribute some money directly to people because the economy in theory could benefit from the money multiplier effect. That's assuming people don't take that money and go shopping at Wal-Mart, because a large portion of that money would head to China. The Chinese, however, would likely continue their appetite for US treasuries because the United States is the primary market for Chinese goods. It's in their interest to keep cost of capital (interest rates) in the US low by maintaining demand for our US Treasuries. If interest rates go too high the economy would slide further into recession and we will buy less of their merchandise.

    Another thing is people might use that money to pay off their mortgages. The money multiplier effect may not work well right now because banks are hoarding cash like everyone else. They have to lend that money out again for the effect to work.

    On the other hand, investment in new technology could support the economy through increased efficiency. Energy is the obvious candidate, but there must be other significant inefficiencies that can be addressed to bring about meaningful improvement in overall economic efficiency. If we create products that save people time and money, we can create products that people will want to buy--putting people to work--and increase economic efficiency at the same time.

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    Member Illict91's Avatar
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    We also need to remember, that the way economic markets are structured today would not have been apparent decades ago. So predicting future economic outcomes may be unknown in certain aspects.

    #1 Globalisation - Has ensured that individual nations have become more integrated in terms of their trading with one another and the financial/investment flows that travel between any two or more economies. What does this mean for the future? Alot of things but mainly that nations can work together by combining any number of resources (incl. labor) and maintaining specialisation to escape a global trough. Otherwise one problem may easily lead to other issues developing due to the growing interdependency of economic markets.This factor is quite relevant since the reasons behind the global downturn started in a specific nation (USA) and followed suit to effect other economies. As evident in the ongoing case of the subprime mortgage crisis.
    #2 Deregulation - Government's are beginning to regulate the markets again after several years of reducing these restrictions, in wake of this recent financial crisis. It is a wise move considering that many consumers and businesses may cause panic through wild speculation, without the guidance of some central authority who can guarantee a populace some sense of security and support (the bail outs). Overall, the regulation of an economy during this crisis can prevent or minimise the effects of a collapse.


    There is plenty more to mention, but summing it up:
    - It would be unrealistic to be entirely pessimistic or optimistic, for that matter on what would likely happen. By slowing down the growth we have observed in recent years, the markets can be helped. Slowing down involves using AND encouraging equity over debt financing (which got us into this mess) for any individual or firm, maintaining employment levels and allowing a few protectionist policies (for vulnerable or significant sectors eg.agriculture,medicine) to come into force until the crisis is over.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ajblaise View Post
    The economy will pick up in 1-2 years. Since the financial crisis, I've heard some well laid out theories from economists on how this isn't exactly the end of the world.
    The financial crisis isn't the end of the world. Far more serious is what the government might do to delay a much needed recession. Since the death of the gold standard there is little monetary discipline. Inflation, stimulus programs, more debt, and further bailouts may come together and produce a far greater recession than the one they are attempting (wrongly) to avoid.

    The rest of the world will be fine in the long-run. The problem is most acute in the United States. In fact, many parts of the world will be better off since they will no longer be sending goods and services to the US which are never paid for.
    A criticism that can be brought against everything ought not to be brought against anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LostInNerSpace View Post
    It may not be such a bad idea to distribute some money directly to people because the economy in theory could benefit from the money multiplier effect. That's assuming people don't take that money and go shopping at Wal-Mart, because a large portion of that money would head to China. The Chinese, however, would likely continue their appetite for US treasuries because the United States is the primary market for Chinese goods. It's in their interest to keep cost of capital (interest rates) in the US low by maintaining demand for our US Treasuries. If interest rates go too high the economy would slide further into recession and we will buy less of their merchandise.

    Another thing is people might use that money to pay off their mortgages. The money multiplier effect may not work well right now because banks are hoarding cash like everyone else. They have to lend that money out again for the effect to work.

    On the other hand, investment in new technology could support the economy through increased efficiency. Energy is the obvious candidate, but there must be other significant inefficiencies that can be addressed to bring about meaningful improvement in overall economic efficiency. If we create products that save people time and money, we can create products that people will want to buy--putting people to work--and increase economic efficiency at the same time.
    No, just no. Bad idea. Americans have to stop borrowing money.

    Keynesian monetary and fiscal policy are both veiled methods of borrowing. In some circumstances they do little damage and may even appear beneficial (so long as future earnings are not overshot), but right now they are a recipe for disaster (especially since the deflation we are currently witnessing is temporary, and crucially, not due to a decrease in the money supply). The Federal Reserve just shouldn't exist--worst idea ever.
    A criticism that can be brought against everything ought not to be brought against anything.

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