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  1. #31
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    LAS VEGAS had it's heaviest snowfall in 30 years-

    Las Vegas gets heaviest snow fall in 30 years - Telegraph

  2. #32
    Gotta catch you all! Blackmail!'s Avatar
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    Today we had a nice 52F (11C) in Paris.

    You can even see Date Palms here, growing in public gardens.

    ---

    When I look at this thread, I'm wondering why people who are obviously incredibly ignorant and never studied this phenomenon scientifically can behave so aggressively, and try to make us believe it's only a political matter?
    Did you spend ten years of your life making careful reports about how several plant species are slowly moving north (I did it)?

    Risen, why are you so full of hate, frustration and anger? You know NOTHING of the subject, so why argue?
    What do you want? What is your real purpose, here?

    It's not a question of winning or losing a debate, since the Global Warming trend will occur, whether you want it or not. So all this rage I see in you is pointless... Why do you need to externalize it?

    Tell us more.
    Last edited by Blackmail!; 12-20-2008 at 09:50 AM.
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  3. #33
    Habitual Fi LineStepper JocktheMotie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackmail! View Post
    When I look at this thread, I'm wondering why people who are obviously incredibly ignorant and never carefully studied this phenomenon scientifically can behave so aggressively...
    That's funny, because nobody else really has either.

    This is a pretty funny video comparing the Climate Change proponents to those of a Religious movement. Global Warming has been plagued with bad science since it's inception, from incorrect mathematical models that are still shown on the news to incomplete, correlation equals causation statements, and reports making predictions that aren't backed up by the very data they publish.

    Is the world getting warmer on average? Yes, certainly seems so. Is it a new phenomenon? No. There isn't enough evidence to support any kind of policy changes and most of the predictions are based on models that are designed to explain changes that already happened, not those that are going to come. It amazes me how weathermen are ruthlessly hated for not being able to predict the weather correctly for 7 straight days, yet people put faith in models that predict climate changes and effects for the next 50-100 years.



  4. #34
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JocktheMotie View Post

    It amazes me how weathermen are ruthlessly hated for not being able to predict the weather correctly for 7 straight days, yet people put faith in models that predict climate changes and effects for the next 50-100 years.
    I have waited to see what will come out from this thread since I was curious about it. Now I will join.


    From this I already know that you don't know about what you are talking about.



    There is a difference between climate and weather.

    Wether is temporary status of a local atmosphere and it can't be predicted on the long run since it has too many factors and interactions in it.

    On the other hand climate is average over a longer periods of time that goes from decades to hundereds of millions of years.
    And It can be predicted since it is sum of many factors and their
    ratio is "easy" to calculate.

  5. #35
    Gotta catch you all! Blackmail!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JocktheMotie View Post
    That's funny, because nobody else really has either.

    This is a pretty funny video comparing the Climate Change proponents to those of a Religious movement. Global Warming has been plagued with bad science since it's inception, from incorrect mathematical models that are still shown on the news to incomplete, correlation equals causation statements, and reports making predictions that aren't backed up by the very data they publish.

    Is the world getting warmer on average? Yes, certainly seems so. Is it a new phenomenon? No. There isn't enough evidence to support any kind of policy changes and most of the predictions are based on models that are designed to explain changes that already happened, not those that are going to come. It amazes me how weathermen are ruthlessly hated for not being able to predict the weather correctly for 7 straight days, yet people put faith in models that predict climate changes and effects for the next 50-100 years.
    Do I look like a religious zealot, for you?

    Again, I've studied consequences of this phenomenon during several years, and I continue to do that. It's part of my job as a University lecturer, and as a member of a research laboratory in the French CNRS.

    And you, what are your credentials?

    Do you know the epistemological difference between opinion and knowledge?
    "A man who only drinks water has a secret to hide from his fellow-men" -Baudelaire

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  6. #36
    Gotta catch you all! Blackmail!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Antisocial one View Post
    There is a difference between climate and weather.

    Wether is temporary status of a local atmosphere and it can't be predicted on the long run since it has too many factors and interactions in it.

    On the other hand climate is average over a longer periods of time that goes from decades to hundereds of millions of years.
    And It can be predicted since it is sum of many factors and their
    ratio is "easy" to calculate.
    Exactly.

    When I say we had a nice 11C in Paris today, I'm referring to local weather.
    But when I say there are currently Date Palms in parisian public gardens, I'm referring to climate.

    I'm glad somebody noticed the difference.
    "A man who only drinks water has a secret to hide from his fellow-men" -Baudelaire

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  7. #37
    no clinkz 'til brooklyn Nocapszy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackmail! View Post
    When I look at this thread, I'm wondering why people who are obviously incredibly ignorant and never studied this phenomenon scientifically can behave so aggressively, and try to make us believe it's only a political matter?
    When I read anything on global warming I ask myself how anyone who'd studied it can think it's anything but a socio-economic/political movement.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackmail! View Post
    And you, what are your credentials?
    Credentials matter far less than calculations do.

    Get the right answers -- not the right degree.
    we fukin won boys

  8. #38
    Habitual Fi LineStepper JocktheMotie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Antisocial one View Post
    I have waited to see what will come out from this thread since I was curious about it. Now I will join.


    From this I already know that you don't know about what you are talking about.



    There is a difference between climate and weather.

    Wether is temporary status of a local atmosphere and it can't be predicted on the long run since it has too many factors and interactions in it.

    On the other hand climate is average over a longer periods of time that goes from decades to hundereds of millions of years.
    And It can be predicted since it is sum of many factors and their
    ratio is "easy" to calculate.
    I know there's a difference. Yet you say weather can't be predicted because there's too many factors but then say climate can because all those factors can be properly added up. Also, the science is completely incomplete. The earth's axis shifts, the sun goes through output cycles [you know, that thing that heats up the earth], the earth has been in a "mini ice age" since around the 1700s, and may just be correcting.

    To me, there is not enough skepticism in the field. We're already seeing policy changes and consumption mandates based on bad science.



  9. #39
    Gotta catch you all! Blackmail!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocapszy View Post
    When I read anything on global warming I ask myself how anyone who'd studied it can think it's anything but a socio-economic/political movement.
    Go into the fields and observe how plants are growing, and where.
    Now, compare this with our paleoclimate datas, with fossil pollens and so on...

    I'd say plants don't care about our current socio-economic/political movements, do they?

    ---

    I will always wonder why people refuse empirical evidences with the last drop of energy. I'd blame Ideologies, but that's probably an NT thing.
    "A man who only drinks water has a secret to hide from his fellow-men" -Baudelaire

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  10. #40
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JocktheMotie View Post
    I know there's a difference. Yet you say weather can't be predicted because there's too many factors but then say climate can because all those factors can be properly added up. Also, the science is completely incomplete. The earth's axis shifts, the sun goes through output cycles [you know, that thing that heats up the earth], the earth has been in a "mini ice age" since around the 1700s, and may just be correcting.
    No, it's more like asking someone "what will I roll on these dice" and asking "how many times will (x) come up if I roll a thousand times". The analogy actually works pretty well when you think of it in terms of not knowing how many sides the dice has, too...

    The models aren't perfect by a long shot, but I can't see anything terribly faulty with the overall picture. It really boils down to how much of an influence we are having, and my understanding is that the regression analysis shows we are primarily responsible. Intuitively, I don't see why this is a surprise - digg up and burn 50bbl/day worth of oil and you add tremendous energy and by products into the world ecosystem. The question is 'how much influence' does it have, not 'if'... and I haven't seen a well reasoned argument on the layered effects of what we are doing (atmosphere composition change, energy, etc.)

    My stance is not in agreement with the standard climate change believers (I think economically it makes little sense to worry about climate change in the present - the time horizons are too long), but I'm even farther away from the 'skeptics'.

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