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  1. #51
    Senior Member Anonymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Hah. You probably don't realize how fitting this response is.
    No, please enlighten me. I'm having trouble connecting love with economics.

  2. #52
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluebell View Post
    I'm aware this probably all sounds overly paranoid. It's kinda along the lines of people who lived through the Great Depression being permanently frugal ever after. Certain experiences can change how you plan for the future.
    It doesn't, really. The problem with situations like this is that while it may be unlikely to hit bad a really spot (say, between great depression and the 1980's), is that everyone who isn't prepared gets hit really hard. Of course, being prepared is only a marginal comfort.

    There is nothing to be done if food simply stops being grown, or distribution breaks down, or the job situation hits the point where people are almost better to go self-sufficient rather than trust the system... but those are very unlikely. I'd say preparing for them is semi-paranoid. But knowing that you could be personally hit hard, such as losing jobs and having a very hard time finding another (in the sense that there are literally no jobs, and now you can't depend on others either), isn't very paranoid. Many many people have lived through it. I know my parents were hit relatively hard in the 1980s and never recovered - relationship issues and everything might very well stem from there.

    It's a real concern, so long as it stays reasonable (and by reasonable, I mean "something that won't hurt you if things turn out alright" - like saving money.)

  3. #53
    Senior Member bluebell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    It's a real concern, so long as it stays reasonable (and by reasonable, I mean "something that won't hurt you if things turn out alright" - like saving money.)
    Yeah, that's why I clarified that I haven't changed anything in our current lifestyle. Reading about how to grow vegetables or learning how to bake bread is definitely "something that won't hurt you if things turn out alright".
    ...so much smoke pouring out of each chromosome.

  4. #54
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    If anyone is interested, you can listen to a string of guests interviewed on Coasttocoastam radio show about the economy. I'm putting stars next to the guests I have heard before on this program and others, and know that they are credible in what they have been saying about the economy since well before the trouble started.

    Hour 1. http://64.141.104.34/20081120_00.wma - Interview with *Alex Jones,

    Hour 3. http://64.141.104.34/20081120_02.wma - *Andre Eggelletion*, **Gerlad Celente**

    Hour 4. http://64.141.104.34/20081120_03.wma - callers


    Out of the whole controversial bunch, Gerald Celente is one I've heard for a number of years, and he's been extremely accurate with his trends research.
    Recap
    Special: The Economic Downturn
    In a special program on the economy, various financial experts and commentators offered analysis of the downturn. Documentary filmmaker Alex Jones kicked off the show, declaring that the "world government" was staging an economic collapse so they can consolidate assets and then issue a new world currency directed by private banks. The silver lining, said Jones, was that the bailout plan might backfire on the New World Order.

    In the second hour, financial advisor Mish Shedlock commented we were in an economic "freefall" and that a lot of it was warranted because banks had been leveraged 12:1. He spoke against the US automotive bailout plan, as the money would only be a temporary fix for them. Analyst Aubie Baltin predicted we'll see a depression by 2010. We've encroached on freedom to such an extent that capitalism is breaking down, he further asserted.

    Author and radio host Andre Eggelletion, appearing in the third hour, said we are already seeing a depression in many parts of the U.S. The market will drop to 7200, and it'll be a 10-year minimum before order is restored, he added. Trends researcher Gerald Celente noted that most businesses are going to take big hits, particularly retail-- we'll start to see more closures and downsizing in February. But, he pointed out, entrepreneurs can benefit in the downturn, as the collapse of Wall St. brings new opportunities to Main St.

  5. #55
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluebell View Post
    Yeah, that's why I clarified that I haven't changed anything in our current lifestyle. Reading about how to grow vegetables or learning how to bake bread is definitely "something that won't hurt you if things turn out alright".
    I think I may of come across less supportive than I meant - I really meant for your approach, and it isn't paranoid at all.

    IMO, times like this emulate what companies do - trim the fat and keep the core business going. It makes us all leaner than before, sure, but it also makes us more effective when the recovery happens.

  6. #56
    pathwise dependent FDG's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    Am I the only one still bearish on the stock market? The news still looks bleak for the short term.
    I am, too. Right now, I have zero money permanently invested, and I only trade short term with highly leveraged CFDs (illegal in the US so far) and a strong stop loss to follow the trend in the days the high volatility of the time causes large positive jumps.
    ENTj 7-3-8 sx/sp

  7. #57
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    Aie, I'm trying not to derail the thread. However, the classic example is the great depression, down to the boom, and the rapid destruction of wealth, moving into deflation and so forth. I don't think it will be that bad - I doubt the government will make the same mistakes as it did then - but it has a lot of commonality. (Keep in mind that I'm not arguing over what the government role should be, only that things can take a *very* long time to work out. As in a decade+.)
    Yeah, I figured you'd mention the depression, which is a great example of government involvement drastically slowing down the recovery process. There's a trend where the more government is involved in the economy, the more extreme the peaks and valleys become and the longer the recovery process takes. The government can't change the inevitable. They can't make it hurt less, they can only distribute the pain over a longer period of time (which is what these bailouts are doing).

    Central banking was supposed to end panics. It was supposed to stabilize the financial industry. The exact opposite has occurred. It has increased the intensity of the spikes. Just like other aspects of the economy, central bankers don't have enough information to make the decisions necessary to be successful at their job.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  8. #58
    pathwise dependent FDG's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    Yeah, I figured you'd mention the depression, which is a great example of government involvement drastically slowing down the recovery process. There's a trend where the more government is involved in the economy, the more extreme the peaks and valleys become and the longer the recovery process takes. The government can't change the inevitable. They can't make it hurt less, they can only distribute the pain over a longer period of time (which is what these bailouts are doing).

    Central banking was supposed to end panics. It was supposed to stabilize the financial industry. The exact opposite has occurred. It has increased the intensity of the spikes. Just like other aspects of the economy, central bankers don't have enough information to make the decisions necessary to be successful at their job.
    Lol @ ideology. I mean, I would agree with you, if it weren't so obvious that you're biased.
    ENTj 7-3-8 sx/sp

  9. #59
    Courage is immortality Valiant's Avatar
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    Noticed the bad times coming and it happened to coincide with me actually wanting to take up my studies... I decided to do so. I will be done in about 4-5 years, hopefully this shitstorm will be over by then.

    Mightier than the tread of marching armies is the power of an idea whose time has come

  10. #60
    Senior Member "?"'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    There is nothing to be done if food simply stops being grown, or distribution breaks down, or the job situation hits the point where people are almost better to go self-sufficient rather than trust the system... but those are very unlikely. I'd say preparing for them is semi-paranoid. But knowing that you could be personally hit hard, such as losing jobs and having a very hard time finding another (in the sense that there are literally no jobs, and now you can't depend on others either), isn't very paranoid. Many many people have lived through it. I know my parents were hit relatively hard in the 1980s and never recovered - relationship issues and everything might very well stem from there.
    There was never a shortage of food during the Great Depression. My dad is a depression era baby and he recalls there was no scarcity. In fact there was plenty to go around, but no one could afford to buy. The scarcity came because along with the depression, the midwest suffered a drought during the early to mid thirties.

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