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  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Modern Nomad View Post
    in general, I have a better opinion of Goldman Sach's managers (Paulson) than Detroit or Enron management. At least Goldman managers decided to give themselves no bonus so juniors can have bonuses.

    I don't think you truly understand how bad things would have been... literally imagine going to the atm and not being able to pull out cash. The total US housing market lost $6 trillion in value over the last two years. That loss, basically would have trickled down to everyone in some form or another. It's a real loss, i'm not sure if it can be tied to imaginary WMD in Iraq just because Paulson was appointed by Bush.
    I'm sorry, but I dont give that much trust to ANY single human being. Thta's just asking for (and we are receiving) trouble. Every time this fool comes out and speaks the markets go down; because he says such stupid things. Like today he came out and tried to make the case that we shouldn't worry about the dollar despite all the spending and printing of dollars, which shows he has absolutely no desire to tell the truth of whats going on (or is simply incompetent), and frankly doesn't know how to choose his words carefully if he's actually trying to help the markets with his announcements instead of hurt. After his announcement today the markets took an IMMEDIATE dive, and so did the dollar.

    FOREX-US dollar falls below 96 yen after Paulson comments | Markets | Markets News | Reuters

    He has made numerous stupidity statements throughout this ordeal that have had the same effect. Telling us that the bailout money that was demanded from U.S. taxpayers is not going to go to what they were insisting it would be used for, but rather for bailing out the banks and their own buddies is not a confidence increaser. I find it appalling how much of the bailout money has gone directly to the pockets of company employees, and how it is not being reported. Give me some time tomorrow and I will show you just what I'm talking about.

  2. #12
    mountain surfing nomadic's Avatar
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    ^ actually the dollar has gained on the euro and the pound tremendously in the last few months.

    it loses against the yen for different fundamental reasons.

    yeah, he has disrupted the markets in some cases. especially when he changed the TARP plan with little explanation last week. but im not sure how that relates to Bush. Paulson doesn't make his own reality and lie through his teeth. He could be doing a better job though, either in transparency or in execution.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Modern Nomad View Post
    ^ actually the dollar has gained on the euro and the pound tremendously in the last few months.

    it loses against the yen for different fundamental reasons.

    yeah, he has disrupted the markets in some cases. especially when he changed the TARP plan with little explanation last week. but im not sure how that relates to Bush. Paulson doesn't make his own reality and lie through his teeth.
    Only gaining against them because of their own recessions, and the fact that the trillions of dollars we are now dedicated to spending aren't yet being flooded into the system, but are being held within the banks. Otherwise we would be losing much more value even against the declining economies of the other countries. In any case, that's slightly off topic to what I was saying about Paulson, so I'll leave it at that... and so is Bush :/ .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    Otherwise we would be losing much more value even against the declining economies of the other countries.
    i have no idea what your point is here. im not sure what you are saying actually...

    In any case, that's slightly off topic to what I was saying about Paulson, so I'll leave it at that... and so is Bush :/ .
    i don't mind efficiency when it comes to the financial markets. that said, paulson is doing a decent job. could be better, but he is def. not a dumb guy making it worse for the usa...

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Modern Nomad View Post
    i have no idea what your point is here. im not sure what you are saying actually...
    You said our dollar is rising against the Euro. I explained why that is, and how it's tied to the money we are spending/printing to bail out all these institutions. To further clarify that sentence, I meant our currency would be declining much further relative to the currencies of other countries if the cash we are printing were injected straight into the circulating money supply, even as they face their own devaluation through their own economic collapse.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    You said our dollar is rising against the Euro. I explained why that is, and how it's tied to the money we are spending/printing to bail out all these institutions. When I said "we", I meant our currency.
    but its actually a good sign that the dollar is having strength in a financial crisis. if everyone ditched the dollar during a financial crisis, esp. this recent one, i mean, that would be very very very bad.

    basically, the US is dealing with this financial crisis before europe is dealing with theirs, and europe is learning in real time watching paulson/bernanke moves. thats pretty much the accepted market hypothesis over the past 3 months. this by no way means things are looking rosy going forward tho.

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Modern Nomad View Post
    but its actually a good sign that the dollar is having strength in a financial crisis. if everyone ditched the dollar during a financial crisis, esp. this recent one, i mean, that would be very very very bad.

    basically, the US is dealing with this financial crisis before europe is dealing with theirs, and europe is learning in real time watching paulson/bernanke moves. thats pretty much the accepted market hypothesis over the past 3 months. this by no way means things are looking rosy going forward tho.
    ^see edit above.

  8. #18
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    To further clarify that sentence, I meant our currency would be declining much further relative to the currencies of other countries if the cash we were printing were injected straight into the circulating money supply, even as they face their own devaluation through their own economic collapse.
    when u say "declining much further" i think what u mean is "not strengthening as much".

    im mean, i guess i didn't understand what u are saying, bc it just shows that Paulson and Bernanke have been doing relatively good stuff by not making it worse that it should have been had they done nothing or just resorted to printing money and no other actions. Thank greenspan for this mess. and poor regulation of the credit derivatives market. markets are watching paulson no doubt, he has shown signs of some erraticness, but by no means, is he deserving of a comparison to some bush legacy or a sign of some dictator in making who wants to be bush. efficient smart action is a very good thing right now. people in the markets are not "culturally or logically similiar" to politicians for the most part. altho sometimes they are forced to.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by reason View Post
    I wrote this on INTPCentral in response to a thread and thought I would share it here. This is how the financial crisis makes sense to me, and I have heard or read few people who explain it similarly (except, perhaps, Peter Schiff, who saw it coming!) It was partially born from discussions with my economics professor from a few weeks back (also from working for two mortgage brokers over the last few years.) Any feedback would be appreciated.

    When someone borrows money they are redistributing income across time.

    Suppose that you are currently earning $10,000 per annum, and expect to earn $500,000 over the next ten years ($50,000 per annum on average.) But you want to increase your income now, and decide to borrow $30,000 from those expected earnings. This raises your current income to $40,000, and only decreases your expected earnings to $470,000 ($47,000 per annum on average.) By redistributing your funds across time you can achieve a steadier and more equitable income. An investment, meanwhile, would increase expected earnings. Suppose, for example, that without the $30,000 loan you only expect to earn $300,000 over the next ten years (perhaps it is going to pay for an education.) In such a case, the loan would qualify as an investment.

    Interest and lending criteria (capital requirements, credit checks, employment provisos, etc.) are the price of enabling this redistribution of income across time. One person's loan is another person's investment; what one person is expected to pay in interest another person expects to receive.

    Suppose that a loan is sold on false expectations, and moreover, it is predominantly spent on consumption (not investments.) A loan of $30,000 is given to you with the false expectation that you will earn $500,000 over the next ten years (in fact, you will only earn $300,000--or $30,000 per annum on average.) But you begin to adjust your consumption to your new $40,000 income. GDP is booming (production is effectively paid for by 'IOUs') and the economy looks in great shape according to the "experts." Eventually, the 'next ten years' begins, and your expected income was mistaken. Rather than having $47,000 per annum on average (down from $50,000 because of the loan) you only earn $30,000, and moreover, you still need to payback your loan!

    With a $27,000 income you cannot sustain the same consumption habits that you had with $40,000. Perhaps you even default on your loan. But remember, one person's loan is another person's investment. When you default an investor somewhere discovers that his expected earnings were also mistaken (since they were calculated on yours), and he cannot sustain the same consumption habits that he had with his previous income. Imagine that this occurs to hundreds of thousands of debtors and investors across the country, each linked to each other via the financial markets, dependent upon each other corrrectly predicting their future earnings. Suddenly, everyone is earning less than expected, while also paying for past consumption.

    Be wary of politicians who suppose to "fix" this problem--although its consequences are being felt now, the opportunity to avoid it has already gone. Too many people wrongly predicted future earnings, that was a mistake, but some, such as Obama, might try and change that mistake into a delusion.
    The Milton Friedman paradox.

    In a sound economy the host pays the lunch.
    Not the guest.

    Investment is not a double shift.

  10. #20
    ⒺⓉⒷ Eric B's Avatar
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    All of that is basically what even Bush Sr. called "voodoo economics", when he was still running against Reagan before becoming his running mate. Maybe it's time to consider getting back to hard cash, and not borrowing money that essentially doesn't exist yet.

    On the View today, Whoopi and the others struck such a point that I immediately e-mailed the show:

    Kudos for the girls today (Nov.19) for the "What the Hell" moment about the auto execs taking private jets when asking for bailouts, and how it's always the little person who suffers, never those at the top (let's also not forget the bank execs going on $89,000 pheasant hunts with their bailout money!) What's so sad about all this is the total lack of awareness of most of the people. For decades, we've had everyone from Reagan to [Pat] Robertson to Rush telling us not to look at these executives; they all "worked hard" and deserve it. (don't most of us "work hard"?) And people bought it, and the public consciousnness directed blame for all the finiancial woes to "taxes" wasted on the "undeserving" poor. ("welfare"). They screamed until that was "reformed", then it became "illegal aliens" from the "unprotected" southern border. Now, I'm not sure who they're blaming. I've even seen someone online say "well, those guys all took risks to get where they are; I didn't". So an entitlement mentality developed among these leaders. Government also, as we've just had NY Gov. Patterson grilled on if he would cut his own salary, and after a few minutes saying that that wouldn't make a difference. But when every executive in business and government exempts themselves like that, we see what we see today, where the entire economy will collapse, and this elite class remain totally unaffected.
    So we need well heard voices like you to help make everyone aware of what's really going on here. The election of Obama should show us that we need to move on from a focus on racial inequity, and see class/economics as the new discrimination, as both Dr. King and Malcolm X began even realizing in their final years.
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