I like this... but I'm feeling particularly vexed about the idea of reviewing Bayesian and Frequentist theory-systems... so I'll reproduce something a philosophy teacher of mine had us consider in relation to these sorts of questions... questions of proof, confirmation bias, etc.
Proposition: No human being will ever reach the age of 150 years.
Supporting Fact: The oldest human being on record was 149 years, 10 months, and 2 days old at the time of his death.
Conclusion: The proposition is true....
Or is it?
The crux of the issue is that you/we're trying to mix necessary truths (phrased as universal statements) with contingent facts...
So, I guess, I would probably side with Nocturne on this one.