# Thread: Would you bet your life that the sun will rise tomorrow?

1. ## Would you bet your life that the sun will rise tomorrow?

If so, how are you so confident that it will?

If not, do you not consider yourself certain that the sun will rise?

2. This thread makes no sense. If I bet my life that the sun would rise tomorrow, and it didn't, I would be dead anyway.

3. So basically, you wouldn't.

But assume, I guess, that the sun isn't necessary for life..for the purposes of the thread.

4. Yes, the sun is necessary for life.

5. No, you didn't answer the question.

6. Originally Posted by Marmie Dearest
This thread makes no sense. If I bet my life that the sun would rise tomorrow, and it didn't, I would be dead anyway.
exactly. it's like asking if you'd bet your life that you won't get murdered tomorrow.

7. the difference being one event necessitates the other (death=no life) and the other doesn't (sun may or may not equal life)...in this case assume it doesn't.

In broader terms, at what point does it become illogical to assume that event a will not happen, when it has always happened in the past? At what point does it become logical to assume event a will happen in the future based only on past evidence? Surely not just once, or even twice...what is that number of times that it becomes reasonable to assume that event a will happen, when b happens, simply because it has always done so in the past? 10? 100?

Same question, but in a different context...

Everyday since your birth the sun has risen (assume so, at least). The first sunrise couldn't have indicated to you that it will always rise...and neither could the second...but eventually you get the sense that it will always happen...so much so that I'd imagine many would be willing to "bet their life" (or whatever else is precious to them) on it. How many days would this take? When do you "know" beyond a doubt (enough you are willing to die for it) that the sun will rise tomorrow? Or do you never know?

8. It's not a yes or no just a probability that's the magic of statistics!

9. Originally Posted by xisnotx
Everyday since your birth the sun has risen (assume so, at least). The first sunrise couldn't have indicated to you that it will always rise...and neither could the second...but eventually you get the sense that it will always happen...so much so that I'd imagine many would be willing to "bet their life" (or whatever else is precious to them) on it. How many days would this take? When do you "know" beyond a doubt (enough you are willing to die for it) that the sun will rise tomorrow? Or do you never know?
While the precedent for the sun risen is very strong, we also are aware of a standard process for the sun's lifespan; very few things imaginable would be able to derail the sun's behavior, and anything large enough would have already been detectable. You might as well ask if we'd bet our lives on still being able to breathe oxygen tomorrow. So to me, it's not a matter of belief except to the degree that I "believe that gravity will function tomorrow as it has been."

Of course maybe there is some mystical magical ocelot that will eat the sun tonight for kicks, and we'll all be dead. Whatever. Does this discussion have a point?

Maybe you'd do better using an example where people depend on precedents that are not matters of established "natural law," if you have a point to prove or ask about how long a pattern must persist before becoming credible in someone's mind.

10. so lame

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