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  1. #71
    literally your mother PocketFullOf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by doppelganger View Post
    Since Bush was able to convince the allies to act using lies, it can be supposed they could have done the same thing using (more) lies.
    I disagree, I think what happened was so bad that allies were able to overlook the fact that the Bush Administration was being a little trigger happy. The US felt very vulnerable and it was obvious for her allies to see, and since at that time the US was the most powerful (or one of the most powerful) countries in the world, the fact that this could happen in the US scared all her less powerful allies that none of them were safe, therefore there was more leeway for action than there otherwise might have been if the attack had been thwarted, because it would show that the US could guard themselves against such a threat and there wasn't a need for immediate eradication which would mean that the Bush Administration would have to pursue other options first to not seem rash.
    And even if they had not succeeded in getting UN agreement, Bush would've gone in with a few close allies (like the UK) anyway.
    There is no way to know that, but it is likely.
    So I'm not sure history would have changed, but I am sure many lives and the biggest symbols of American power would have survived. That is, if there was a conspiracy. And I don't believe there was.
    Like I said, calling it a conspiracy is massive overkill.


    Taking a concept to it's logical end is rarely logical or relevant to the subject at hand.
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  2. #72
    Member doppelganger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackDog View Post
    No, that wasn't my argument. My argument is that if the system was upheld by random factors, it would have collapsed long ago. It stands for reasons, and as long as those reasons stand the system is upheld. I named what I believe to the the reasons.
    Your wrote:

    The major power guaranteeing global trade cannot succumb to debt problems without the compromise of the whole system that it is guaranteeing. It is inconceivable outside massive environmental damage that the system which has expanded continuously since the 1700s will collapse. WWI tanked the British and transferred the role over to the U.S,but the U.S. is in no similar position to be tanked and replaced by a similar rival with sophisticated financial systems, raw industrial power, and a powerful navy and general security power.
    First of all, Britain didn't "hand over the role to the US" after WWI. The US dollar became the world's reserve currency after WWII following the Bretton Woods agreement. Second, your argument is that as long as there is no viable alternative to the US it will remain the guarantor of the world's reserve currency. This assumes there has to be a single reserve currency backed by a single national power. But what did ppl do before there was a reserve currency? Is it not possible for countries to trade in their own currencies, especially large trading partners? China, for example, has signed several agreements to conduct bilateral trade in renminbi, not dollars. Russia is beginning to do the same. And why can't a transnational body like the IMF assume the role? In fact, there has been talk of using the IMF's Special Depository Rights (SDRs) as the reserve currency. It would be backed by a basket of currencies including the dollar. Third, it isn't necessary for the country backing the reserve currency to have the strongest military. It is necessary that the country have one of if not the strongest economies. This ensures there are large and sophisticated markets to finance trade and facilitate the flow of capital. A strong economy with low inflation also ensures the stability of the reserve currency. The military has nothing to do with any of these conditions, and is why the yen at one time was thought to be a candidate for reserve currency status. (See below for discussion about Japan.)

    The role of depressions is overexaggerated by those suffering them. Because the world economy waxes and wanes does not mean that the relative position of the U.S. is fundamentally damaged relative to the other economies.
    History is not a collection of isolated events but a sequence of events one leading to and producing the other. WWI produced the boom in the US in the 20s that lead to the Great Crash and Depression of the 30s. In Germany, WWI produced the hyperinflation of the 20s that lead to Hitler and Nazism in the 30s. Both the Depression and Nazism lead to WWII that produced the demise of the British Empire and the ascension to superpower status of the US. So depressions are not isolated events that touch only the countries or ppl that suffer them. Worldwide depressions touch everyone and changes history, including the country backing the reserve currency.

    Britain lost its colonies because Japan took Singapore and showed once for all that the hold Britain had over them was mainly psychological.
    Soldiers from all over the Commonwealth fought on behalf of the British in both WWI and WWII. Britain fought against Axis aggression and for the independence of occupied states. It was patently hypocritical for Britain to ask the Commonwealth states to fight for the independence of Poland, Czechoslovakia, etc, when they themselves maintained colonies in the middle east, Asia, and elsewhere. That hypocrisy and the weakened postwar British military and economy were the primary reasons for the loss of many colonies after WWII.

    The whole point is that the US won't find itself in such a position. The U.S. is more powerful than Britain ever was relative to its rivals. The EU is finished as a military power; they've been a virtual protectorate since WWII.
    You don't understand the scenario. Go back and reread what I wrote. The US enters a war that another power such as Europe or China manages to avoid. As a result, the US suffers significant military and economic losses while Europe or China escapes unscathed. This leaves Europe or China in a much stronger position vis a vis the US, just as WWII left the US in a much stronger position vis a vis Britain. At that point, Europe or China will have the wherewithal to assume the role of economic and military leadership of the world.

    China is overhyped. They are surrounded by U.S. created protectorates or former protectorates like Japan, Taiwan (right on the Chinese coast, preventing them from projecting their navy abroad like the U.S. does), South Korea and others. Obama's fabled pivot to Asia; it didn't happen, but what was that about? It's about the beginning of pressure on China.
    This is still in the erroneous pre-war context, but let me just say that Japan is not militarized and neither Taiwan nor S Korea have a nuclear arsenal. They are both dependent on the US for their protection. But it is that protection that is "overhyped". If China, for example, invaded Taiwan tomorrow, do you think the US would really risk a war with China? What did NATO do when Russia invaded Georgia and Ukraine?

    In addition to this, if you look up the statistics on the amount of value added in Chinese factories, you'll find that it is very minimal. China is much hype and little substance; in practice they have been converted into a big factory for the assembly of cheap goods. It is far easier to do this than it is to develop research facilities and industries necessary for developing new and competitive military technology.
    Show me the statistics. The Chinese are not just producing "cheap goods" anymore. They have steadily moved up the manufacturing value chain. Ever heard of Lenovo? Or Alibaba? Or Huawei?

    Sure, the economy of the U.S. is propped up by artificial measures. This has been true since WWII at least. How else do you maintain such extraordinary wealth disparities, both domestically and in comparison with the world? But this doesn't mean that such artificial measures can't continue and even increase. Someday the U.S. will lose its position, but I find it hard to imagine that it will be in the foreseeable future.
    A country doesn't have to adopt artificial measures to produce unequal results. Capitalism guarantees that by its very nature. And the easy monetary policy of the last fifteen years has actually helped narrow the gap with the rest of the world by financing our purchases of inexpensive goods from China and other developing countries.

    Just think of it this way. The Japanese, a U.S. ally, did great up to a certain point. But then they ran out of things to copy in the West because technology peaked out. And their lack of R&D came back to bite them. The same thing will happen with China. The developer is tremendously advanced with respect to the imitator.
    Really? So the Japanese didn't copy our MP3 players and smartphones? Or our personal computers? Or big screen TVs? And they don't have the internet? And haven't developed electric vehicles?

    No. Japan peaked because they had a real estate bubble. When it popped, rather than forcing the sick banks to write-off bad debts the authorities dragged their feet and propped them up. Banks with bad debts can't perform their job of supplying credit, and because credit is the fuel of our modern capitalist economies, the Japanese economy languished.

  3. #73
    Senior Member BlackDog's Avatar
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    @doppelganger : I'll just let a response on this one pass. I think on both sides we've reached the point where it is just assertion and counter-assertion; and in fact on some points I agree with you. If this hypothetical war did happen, it could hypothetically play out as you've laid out. No contest there. But it hasn't happened yet so we don't know what 'would happen'.

    I'm not invested enough in the issue to do research.
    Formerly Lion4!5
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  4. #74
    Senior Member hazelsees's Avatar
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    Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future...

  5. #75
    Senior Member Ene's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by doppelganger View Post
    So, I've heard a few Ni-doms describe Ni as a "powerful" cognitive function. Supposedly, one of its powers is the ability to look into the future and foresee what will happen. YET, when you look at the real world, there are no ppl who can consistently predict what will happen in human affairs, no sage stock market forecasters, no prescient political pundits, no genius military leaders, no insightful intelligence agents who can tell us what is going to happen with any degree of consistency or reliability. Just look at 911. Where was the Ni-dom to tell us that was going to happen?

    So, this is my challenge. Give us a demonstration of your Ni powers, right here, right now. Tell us something that is going to happen. And not just this one time. Not even twice. But consistently. Over time.

    You can't do it. Not better than a flip of a coin.

    As an aside, I have a INTJ friend who is a student of history, and he tells me that at critical junctures in history, when there was great upheaval and the future was uncertain, there typically was only one person who correctly foresaw how events would unfold--and sometimes there wasn't even one. And even when there was, successfully anticipating only one event is a poor test of real ability. It is beyond normal human powers to consistently anticipate the future. History shows this. As will this thread.
    It doesn't really work like that, at least not in my understanding. I believe the whole psychic/ precog thing is a misconception about Ni. Ni isn't about predicting economic collapses, wars or political upheavals. It's not about predicting the future of the world. It's about finding one's own way in the world. Every time I've ever ignored my initial impression about a situation or a person, I've regretted it. I can't tell what course of action is best for the world, but I do listen to my intuition when dealing with "my world."

    Ni dominants are adept at connecting unseen dots, at constantly picking up nuances. Because of the ability to connect those dots, to synthesize an overall pattern and predict a plausible (not definite) outcome, some people want to stick the label “psychic” into the mix, which I do not like. I think a huge portion of it is just in subconsciously connecting current trends of people’s actions to past outcomes and formulating a probable result. I think the greatest use of Ni is in navigating the course of one's own life.

    Still, it’s important to note as I said in another post, that while a well-developed intuition can often be dead on the money, intuition can also be wrong sometimes. There's always the chaos factor, randominities. It must be balanced with logical thought.

    Anyway, I think there's nothing to prove. Ni is what it is just like any other lead function. It has advantages and disadvantages.
    A student said to his master: "You teach me fighting, but you talk about peace. How do you reconcile the two?" The master replied: "It is better to be a warrior in a garden than to be a gardener in a war." - unknown/Chinese

    http://www.typologycentral.com/forum...=61024&page=14

  6. #76
    Google "chemtrails" Bush Did 9/11's Avatar
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    My vote is to close this thread down now, then open it up in 10 years to see which set of predictions came true. We'll have answers on the predictive powers of whatever the hell then.

    And also the thread will be closed for 10 whole years, which is a pretty damn good side effect.
    J. Scott Crothers
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  7. #77
    The Green Jolly Robin H.
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    I predict Rand Paul becomes president one day.
    "i shut the door and in the morning
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    -the end"




    Olemn slammed his hammer and from the sparks on the metal of his anvil came the spheres of the heavens.

    Sayrah blew life into the spheres and they moved. From her wheel she weaved the names of people in to mystery.

  8. #78
    literally your mother PocketFullOf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GarrotTheThief View Post
    I predict Rand Paul becomes president one day.
    The US won't be ready for him in his lifetime.


    Taking a concept to it's logical end is rarely logical or relevant to the subject at hand.
    Johari Nohari
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  9. #79
    The Green Jolly Robin H.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PocketFullOf View Post
    The US won't be ready for him in his lifetime.
    That might be the case...but I'm reminded of the idea that progress also might not be linear and if progressive attitude expansion is accelerating we might see exponential support in a shorter time frame than we think. Ten years ago the political landscape was radically different. Of course there is the possibility that political landscape might actually be quite stagnant and linear in nature. I'm not expert. I just get an intuition that is more possible than we think.

    I see you decided on entp instead of entj...interesting.
    "i shut the door and in the morning
    it was open
    -the end"




    Olemn slammed his hammer and from the sparks on the metal of his anvil came the spheres of the heavens.

    Sayrah blew life into the spheres and they moved. From her wheel she weaved the names of people in to mystery.

  10. #80
    Wake, See, Sing, Dance Cellmold's Avatar
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    I'm sure I read an analogy of Ni that likened it to looking through a keyhole, you can see something is there, you know it exists but until the door is opened you have no clear idea of what you were looking at, but once seen it couldn't possibly have been anything else.

    Either that or wigfzgelnvecgjvgygb. Stuff over the next few years could be fairly well predicted using data, trends, analysis etc.. You don't need intuition for it since the information is available NOW.

    Although seriously you can't make truly accurate predictions once you aim too far forward in time. Know why?

    Because without context it sounds like nonsense. Basically look up Agnes Nutter. What would a computer look like to an individual from an ancient civilisation if it could be predicted? Or even a hundred years ago?
    'One of (Lucas) Cranach's masterpieces, discussed by (Joseph) Koerner, is in it's self-referentiality the perfect expression of left-hemisphere emptiness and a precursor of post-modernism. There is no longer anything to point to beyond, nothing Other, so it points pointlessly to itself.' - Iain McGilChrist

    Suppose a tree fell down, Pooh, when we were underneath it?"
    "Suppose it didn't," said Pooh, after careful thought.
    Piglet was comforted by this.
    - A.A. Milne.

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