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  1. #61
    Senior Member BlackDog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by teothebest View Post
    what a biased hypothesis. of course the US are going to enter a war (you always do it), but they are going to lose and will have to forsake the project of ruling the world (when I hear americans saying "why don't we send soldiers here and there" my usualy answer is "because the wolrd is not yours neither risiko").
    just look at how China bought your debt, is builiding a web of economic alliance with many emerging countries (never heard of yellow africa before?) and is overall playing much better on the global chessboard.
    moreover, many of your old allies are beginning to look around to seek more reliable partners that won't treat them as servants.
    what the hell do you think Europe thought after you spied the whole continent? of course they will look pleasing for a while, but underneath many people here hold a grudge against the US and would rather see you minding your own business. in short, everybody's just playing along.
    haven't you noticed how NATO takes less and less action toward terrorism and in general global threats?
    we failed to protect Ukraine successfully, and you will fail to protect Japan from China once time will come.
    I do foresee a war incoming, but the result will only be a major change in the words' setting, and nothing will be like it was before.
    The dominating power is feared and hated. It has always been so.

    What do you think will happen to your country if it is not the next dominating power? The nature of strategy makes it certain that we will always live in a brutal world so long as brutality is a by-product of effective coercion. The best we can hope for is to live under the protection of tyrants.

    EDIT: I would also note that we in fact gained over Ukraine. It was Russia's historically; in fact, we faithfully swore to Gorbachev in the days of Clinton that NATO would never go east of Germany. Instead, after we perceived the weakness of Russia, we advanced NATO up to Russia's very borders. Today, it makes news headlines when Russia dares to mass troops on its own border; what kind of power or rivalry is this? U.S. is trying hard to encircle Russia.
    Formerly Lion4!5

  2. #62
    Google "chemtrails" Bush Did 9/11's Avatar
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    Forum: MBTI (tm) and Jungian Cognitive Functions
    All things related to MBTI, including cognitive functions, Kiersey temperaments, and more!

    Hmm
    J. Scott Crothers
    aka "Bush Did 9/11"
    Founder, Truthtology, est. 1952
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    Author, the Holy scripture Elevenetics

    "Just as jet fuel cannot melt steel beams, so too cannot the unshakeable pillars of Truthtology ever be shaken, whether by man, nature, or evidence."
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  3. #63
    Junior Member DsTeP's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by doppelganger View Post
    How did you come to foresee what would happen in Ukraine and the formation of ISIS?

    And what will happen in Ukraine now? What will happen in Syria?
    The Ukrainians had a d deep hatred for Putin as he helped the former corrupt President rig the vote. The cops/government was seen as the Mafia. The revolution will leave a debt on the country leading them to join in the EU after another year of argument between the Ukraine and Russia (Putin will either quit on his own terms or will have to be murdered.)
    Syria is the Iraqi revolution all over, the USA will help the revolutionary team and arm them which may lead to a peaceful state for the country or another ISIS at this time it is to early to tell.

  4. #64
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    Just for fun:

    I predict a revival of gothic architecture with it's flavor for fine detail and ornaments, as the game of light and shadows, the break down of space and the visual pull of curvature combined with increasing the density of details enables us to make smaller space seem bigger, a selling point that would get stronger the more dense cities become an will eventually outweigh the cost as 3d printers will chip away from the cost benefit of having identical mass produced blocks.
    I predict that due to the limitation on air time, the current experiments with drone delivery systems will fail to reach mass market use until they can be used legally in conjunction with driverless vehicles, which would take time because the legal requirements for a road vehicle that has no driver at all - nobody there to take over and nobody's insurance to sue - are well beyond the legal acceptance of simply equipping self-driving system.
    I predict that privacy will come back, and with it the biggest blow to our current institutions and systems as we know them: Quantum encryption would not only allow security code you can not break, but will usher a new age of online currencies who's transactions are completely untraceable by any government agency, making huge portions of the tax code completely unenforceable for a larger and larger part of the population - starting from the top.

    (To my knowledge no Ni has being used in the process of the above - just good old fashioned analysis-guided imagination with some of the basic principles of scenario planning).
    Likes doppelganger liked this post

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackDog View Post
    The dominating power is feared and hated. It has always been so.

    What do you think will happen to your country if it is not the next dominating power? The nature of strategy makes it certain that we will always live in a brutal world so long as brutality is a by-product of effective coercion. The best we can hope for is to live under the protection of tyrants.

    EDIT: I would also note that we in fact gained over Ukraine. It was Russia's historically; in fact, we faithfully swore to Gorbachev in the days of Clinton that NATO would never go east of Germany. Instead, after we perceived the weakness of Russia, we advanced NATO up to Russia's very borders. Today, it makes news headlines when Russia dares to mass troops on its own border; what kind of power or rivalry is this? U.S. is trying hard to encircle Russia.
    being feared and hated does not mean anything. believing that you can challenge the whole world's will is just delusional. the US have enjoyed their brightest years during the last two decades (since the fall of the Berlin wall), but now the tables are turning.
    so in your opinion the matter is that you will be either dominated or domineering? well, this sort of makes sense but the power games are already going on.
    many of you americans see the rebellions in the Middle east just as a problem of safety, which is to simplicistic. people want a change. in Brazil, in Africa, in the Muslim world and even in China (just look at what's going on in Hong Kong).
    You guys are just too blinded with your self-righteous boastful behaviour to see what's going on. as for my own country, I don't give a fuck about, honestly
    in fact I am planning on moving abroad.

    I don't see how you hardly gained anything over Ukraine. I mean, broadening the NATO is history already. let's look at the present situation:
    firstly, you lost your economic exchange with Russia, which was relatively low if compared to the EU's (which in fact was doubtful about the sactions against Russia, because we could have ended up without gas with the winter incoming), but imposing the embargo, on the other hand, made the EU even less likely to second your cross-ocean economic agreement (which in the end will end up being nothing).
    ah, you seem to be forgetting that NATO is not the same as US navy.... even if at times it is.
    so, to sum up:
    geopolitically speaking, the one true winners is the EU, which managed to expand as far as Ukraine (the countries that entered NATO after the USSR fall joined the EU too, and EU is much a stronger bond than a military alliance about to fall apart).
    economically speaking, the winner is China, which got his hands on a huge amount of gas for cheap money, just because Putin realized too late he had fucked up with Ukraine.

    lastly, I'd appreciate if you gave up on your risiko view of the world. wars cannot be openly fought among great powers since the UN became a thing after WW2, and diplomacy can do wonders nowadays.
    Likes BlackDog liked this post

  6. #66
    Senior Member BlackDog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by teothebest View Post
    lastly, I'd appreciate if you gave up on your risiko view of the world. wars cannot be openly fought among great powers since the UN became a thing after WW2, and diplomacy can do wonders nowadays.
    I sincerely hope you are correct. We can both agree on that.
    Formerly Lion4!5

  7. #67
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    let's say it: with this ultraconnected world, wars are just a mess and a big loss of money

    they want our oranges? we want thier gas? so what's the problem, let's hug and cherish each other and pretend to be good friends just for the sake of money

    oh, and if I were you, it would go easy on Putin, lest you want to be jailed for gay propaganda XD

  8. #68
    Senior Member INTP's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by doppelganger View Post
    there are no ppl who can consistently predict what will happen in human affairs
    self-fulfilling prophecy
    "Where wisdom reigns, there is no conflict between thinking and feeling."
    — C.G. Jung

    Read

  9. #69
    Junior Member DsTeP's Avatar
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    Wars will be fought by teenagers with video game controllers

  10. #70
    literally your mother PocketFullOf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by doppelganger View Post
    You laid out three options that I could make out and they are general enough to cover all the possibilities: ISIS loses, ISIS changes itself into a peaceful organization working within the system, or the system changes to give ISIS a role.
    Yes.
    A fourth possibility is ISIS wins.
    I listed that as a highly unlikely possibility.
    Maybe this is what you alluded to? What are the "overarching structures" ISIS would be integrated in to?
    Into the state system as a political party to work within the already existing framework of IR.
    Right now, ISIS is not allied with either the US or Russia, is despised by both Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two antagonists in the unofficial Islamic civil war, and its war on Assad and the US is confined to Syria and Iraq. So how will this conflict widen to a war that can escalate into a something like a WWIII?--ie, how will the bigger powers be drawn in?
    Because bigger powers don't want to lose areas or resources that are strategic within the larger geo-political picture.


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