The Dunning–Kruger Effect

[Mal12345]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect
"The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to recognize their mistakes. The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their own abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority.

"Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. As Kruger and Dunning conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others". The effect is about paradoxical defects in cognitive ability, both in oneself and as one compares oneself to others."

I'm just learning about this, but it's something I've observed in people for many years. I think my observations started with this guy I knew online who thought he was a great hacker, but he was only a mirc kiddie scripter, and at that time I observed that he had some mental block concerning how tiny his knowledge of such things as hacking really was. And so he was overly-confident of his "l33t" hacking abilities.

Over the years I've observed this same phenomenon in people online and irl. For an irl example, I can NOT convince an INTJ co-worker that he doesn't know enough about some subject that is not in his field of specialty no matter how hard I try. And in the long run, he will simply say he's right because of his social standing. This is called Argument from Authority, but pointing out informal logical fallacies also has no effect since social standing is superior to all reasoning and logic.

Now at least I can give this phenomenon a name. But it would be incorrect to say that such people are 'unskilled,' their confidence is simply greater than their knowledge of a subject.

 

[ReflecTcelfeR]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect
"The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to recognize their mistakes. The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their own abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority.

"Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. As Kruger and Dunning conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others". The effect is about paradoxical defects in cognitive ability, both in oneself and as one compares oneself to others."

I'm just learning about this, but it's something I've observed in people for many years. I think my observations started with this guy I knew online who thought he was a great hacker, but he was only a mirc kiddie scripter, and at that time I observed that he had some mental block concerning how tiny his knowledge of such things as hacking really was. And so he was overly-confident of his "l33t" hacking abilities.

Over the years I've observed this same phenomenon in people online and irl. For an irl example, I can NOT convince an INTJ co-worker that he doesn't know enough about some subject that is not in his field of specialty no matter how hard I try. And in the long run, he will simply say he's right because of his social standing. This is called Argument from Authority, but pointing out informal logical fallacies also has no effect since social standing is superior to all reasoning and logic.

Now at least I can give this phenomenon a name. But it would be incorrect to say that such people are 'unskilled,' their confidence is simply greater than their knowledge of a subject.

I think this is a case for humility being seen as a sign of intelligence.

 

[Mal12345]

I think this is a case for humility being seen as a sign of intelligence.

Yes, intelligence regarding a certain topic. Or as in my own case, I never considered myself to be terribly intelligent in general. At one time, I estimated my own IQ to be 115, long before I ever knew my test score. I underestimated because I didn't place much important on such things, so mine was a natural or naive form of humility. (Edit - knowing my IQ was not a question of self-esteem, just to explain what I mean by importance.)

 

[ReflecTcelfeR]

Yes, intelligence regarding a certain topic. Or as in my own case, I never considered myself to be terribly intelligent in general. At one time, I estimated my own IQ to be 115, long before I ever knew my test score. I underestimated because I didn't put much stock in such things, so mine was a natural or naive form of humility.

I suppose I could be in the same boat, but determining whether you are humble because of natural circumstances, or realizing your state as being average; which, to those reading is NOT, I repeat NOT a bad thing brings about humility seems hard to discern.

 

[Mal12345]

I suppose I could be in the same boat, but determining whether you are humble because of natural circumstances, or realizing your state as being average; which, to those reading is NOT, I repeat NOT a bad thing brings about humility seems hard to discern.

I hope the edit I made above clarifies what I meant by that. My self-esteem was not caught up in the issue of IQ, so I didn't care what my IQ was, but somehow I underestimated my IQ because, as I recall, I had this natural or naive humility and not the kind that puts on some pretense. It was just the opposite of the Dunning-Kruger effect which is most commonly seen in Asians according to a study (I'm not Asian).

 

[ReflecTcelfeR]

I hope the edit I made above clarifies what I meant by that. My self-esteem was not caught up in the issue of IQ, so I didn't care what my IQ was, but somehow I underestimated my IQ because, as I recall, I had this natural or naive humility and not the kind that puts on some pretense. It was just the opposite of the Dunning-Kruger effect which is most commonly seen in Asians according to a study (I'm not Asian).

Oh, yes, I understood that .

That whole culture is rather subdued (or controlled may be a better word for it)... Not really surprised by the statistics.

 

[King sns]

Knowledge on a topic is not always equivalent to IQ- but it does make sense that the more you know, the more you realize you don't know.

 

[Thalassa]

That's what my favorite teacher said in high school: the wisest man is he who realizes how little he knows.

 

[Mal12345]

Knowledge on a topic is not always equivalent to IQ- but it does make sense that the more you know, the more you realize you don't know.

The more you realize you don't know, the more your mind opens up to new knowledge.

 

[King sns]

The more you realize you don't know, the more your mind opens up to new knowledge.

you want to know everything as opposed to already knowing everything.

 

[Mal12345]

you want to know everything as opposed to already knowing everything.

I'm beyond that point. I've realized that I can't know everything, the holistic elephant remains thoroughly beyond my grasp. And then it's time for a paradigm shift.

 

[King sns]

I'm beyond that point. I've realized that I can't know everything, the holistic elephant remains thoroughly beyond my grasp. And then it's time for a paradigm shift.

I just went on a big long response soliloquy in my head that resulted in a bunch of laughter but would have been totally off topic and trollish.

What's your paradigm shift? Just accepting that no one can know everything?

 

[Mal12345]

I just went on a big long response soliloquy in my head that resulted in a bunch of laughter but would have been totally off topic and trollish.

What's your paradigm shift? Just accepting that no one can know everything?

Mine? No, maybe, I don't know. But I've been watching hard-line physicists these days dancing around with their theories trying to defend what is definitely becoming more and more indefensible because the data is extending farther than their standard theories can reach. That goes for theories concerning both the macrocosm and the microcosm, cosmology and QM. I wish I was up in the mix pushing for a paradigm shift so they can end the hemming and hawing, at least for another hundred years or so until another paradigm shift is required.

 

[ReflecTcelfeR]

Socrates... Is the definition of wisdom to most.

 

[Mal12345]

Socrates... Is the definition of wisdom to most.

G. I. Gurdjieff believed that the secrets of the universe can be acquired only through knowing oneself.

 

[ReflecTcelfeR]

[MENTION=13589]mal12345[/MENTION]

Yeah, that whole universal truth stuff is lame Sophism FTW!

Knowing yourself is important, knowing you don't know what yourself is might save you struggle, hahaha!

 

[Octarine]

"Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. As Kruger and Dunning conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others". The effect is about paradoxical defects in cognitive ability, both in oneself and as one compares oneself to others."

I wonder what leads to this lack of perspective though? It doesn't seem to be clearly linked to type or intelligence for example, but something else. Is it merely lack of experience?

 

[Mal12345]

I wonder what leads to this lack of perspective though? It doesn't seem to be clearly linked to type or intelligence for example, but something else. Is it merely lack of experience?

Lack of self-esteem.

 

[Octarine]

How does a lack of self esteem lead to overconfidence? I would perhaps expect the opposite.

 

[guesswho]

Knowledge on a topic is not always equivalent to IQ- but it does make sense that the more you know, the more you realize you don't know.

.