I have one; I always believe I can program some difficult things in 1/2..1/10th of the time it actually takes. I wonder why I fail estimating the correct time. This is also when I try to take into account my biases and then think I now have good guess.
I just played a team game of warcraft with a teammate who shouted in the start, "rush = win!". I hate the lack of subtlety and ability to manage other plans.. especially when that particular tactic is too obvious and not good enough a battle plan. Expecting good outcome from little to no reasons shows gross incapability of judgement. For you computer game speak illiterate, the expression ment a tactic where we gather all our forces as fast as possible for one single attack, which "should" produce a win.
So I asked how many games he lost with that tactic and lost: it was 100. So I asked why he is so sure of it? No reply. Why can he be so sure? Answer: he's just 99% sure. And no, he has not played 10,000 games. So where's the certainty he gets? I asked if the opponent goes by the same tactic. And he thought that they do. I asked why they don't win then? Ok at the point I was asked to STFU and I understand, I normally never talk so much in a game.
I don't know if he saw the error in his thinking. But after so many losses and practicing the most common tactic in the game, with opponents surely practicing the same tactic in most of the games, he should have grown out of the bias that it is an almost sure tactic.
My women-hunting days had me think that every woman hold the chance to be the best ever, and I would find true love. No, I bored/bailed out most often, and I was sometimes dumped. I understood that I loved the excitement of new people, and I thought to have evaluated the person correctly every new time, having got rid of my bad ways (in whatever way they were).
What makes these biases? Is it in the belief that some issue is only a matter of mind, so that the mind can be bent to accomplish anything?
Is the key reason for this behavior in there, that optimism gets better results on average, so we decide to be optimistic, even tho when the optimism produces wrong results.. and that the combination of all of these things is too difficult to find out and correct.
If it's the matter about optimism, one could do best to outcome one's own internal biases about a situation he/she can't correct, while maintaining optimism in other issues. Why doesn't this happen either?