Chicago Cubs

[Simplexity]

Haha, I used to be a big stat nerd so I know that aspect pretty well.

Have you ever heard of SOSH?

I got a really good baseball stats 101 lesson there. One of the things I quickly learned was that you could get too hyper focused on stats and it was better to merge your actual baseball viewing knowledge and make inferences that would somewhat put you out on the limb. There is of couse a bunch of more in depth and detailed stats I could pull up(Sabermetrics and FIP and Isolated stats and what not), but I don't think thats necessary. That old stats saying really does ring true with baseball, If you want you can make stats say whatever the hell you want( Eric Van on SOSH).

For example I was having a discussion the other day with my friend about the rays and he was saying BJ Upton is not really a threat and the sox shouldn't be too concerned with him. I mentioned that he still had a great OBP so his approach wasn't the problem, still had speed, so maybe it was an injury or he just lost his aggresiveness but his power couldn't have evaporated. Sure enough He goes on a tear in the post season and has 4 HR's allready.

And the AL-NL comment was more along the lines that with a determined Manny and against the Wily veteran Moyer the Dodgers line up to him is more akin to an American League team. I think you're just hung up on the fact that I think Manny is too big a force but in actuality he really is that good.

The biggest point I'm trying to make is the fact that the rest of the dodgers shouldn't have too much problem with getting on base and with Manny on fire it spells a long night for him. Seriously though I don't think thats something we should really be arguing about. Moyer is a guy who deals with people on base ala Dice K but pitches out of the jams, Unlike Dice K however he can't reach back for strikeouts or go through dominating stretches.

 

[pure_mercury]

And the AL-NL comment was more along the lines that with a determined Manny and against the Wily veteran Moyer the Dodgers line up to him is more akin to an American League team. I think you're just hung up on the fact that I think Manny is too big a force but in actuality he really is that good.

He is not good enough to win the series on his own. No one is.

The biggest point I'm trying to make is the fact that the rest of the dodgers shouldn't have too much problem with getting on base and with Manny on fire it spells a long night for him. Seriously though I don't think thats something we should really be arguing about. Moyer is a guy who deals with people on base ala Dice K but pitches out of the jams, Unlike Dice K however he can't reach back for strikeouts or go through dominating stretches.

He's been pretty dominant several times during the season. He is not a big K guy, but that isn't necessary. He just needs to keep the ball down and to keep the bases as clear as possible.

 

[Simplexity]

He's been pretty dominant several times during the season. He is not a big K guy, but that isn't necessary. He just needs to keep the ball down and to keep the bases as clear as possible.

See thats the key there. Hes gotta have that approach against the REST of the dodgers lineup and it is up to them to take advantage, which I think they will. Manny on the other hand is Insanely good in the post season, Absurd. He also kills absolutely kills Moyer so it is going to be a very difficult task to maneuver around the rest of the lineup and also face Manny.

Honestly though it really isn't hyperbole Manny legitimately will be the one cog that you can say "hey if people are on he will drive them in and do damage" and sure enough it seems like 90% of the time you're right and look like a genius. Hes hit like 400 since he joined them with crazy power, he would go on similar stretches with the Redsox...matter of fact last post season thats how Manny was Especially in the Cleveland series, which they would not have won if he wasn't that hot and crazy.

I have to say though I dont think the dodgers will win the series nor do I want them to. Moyer v them though I really do think they will win

 

[pure_mercury]

See thats the key there. Hes gotta have that approach against the REST of the dodgers lineup and it is up to them to take advantage, which I think they will. Manny on the other hand is Insanely good in the post season, Absurd. He also kills absolutely kills Moyer so it is going to be a very difficult task to maneuver around the rest of the lineup and also face Manny.

Honestly though it really isn't hyperbole Manny legitimately will be the one cog that you can say "hey if people are on he will drive them in and do damage" and sure enough it seems like 90% of the time you're right and look like a genius. Hes hit like 400 since he joined them with crazy power, he would go on similar stretches with the Redsox...matter of fact last post season thats how Manny was Especially in the Cleveland series, which they would not have won if he wasn't that hot and crazy.

I have to say though I dont think the dodgers will win the series nor do I want them to. Moyer v them though I really do think they will win

This would be the one game this series in which I would bet against the Phils, if I had to do so. The Dodgers will be playing desperate, and they should be a little looser in front of the home crowd. Plus, they could get to Moyer early. If the Dodgers do win, though, who starts Game 4? Maddux? Game 4 is almost always the most important game in a 7-game series, and the Dodgers won't throw Lowe back in there unless they are down 3-0. I think I would take Joe Blanton over whomever the Dodgers throw out there.

 

[Simplexity]

Yea I think the Phillies really have an advantage in terms of their starters. Kurodas the wildcard but Hamels, Myers, Blanton I think is a better bet than Billingsley, Maddux(whoever their 4th starter is), Lowe. Billingsly let em down and Lowe is good just tough luck I guess. Their offense is also more consistently dangerous.

 

[Simplexity]

You were right moyer was decent for almost 2 innings. NOT!!!!!!

Ohh and Manny was on base every single time, Nomar and the rest of the dodgers offense weren't to intimidated by that sparkling 3.71 era and ace type performance.

And no it wasn't some lucky hunch judging by how vehemently I argued my point.

But I'd hate to say I told you so.

 

[EffEmDoubleyou]

And no it wasn't some lucky hunch judging by how vehemently I argued my point.

Uh, yeah, it was. That's why I took pains to point out ahead of time that I thought you had no basis for your prediction even if it turned out to be correct. This falls under "even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes". Besides, a single and two walks isn't really killing it. Group effort by the Dodgers...Manny's contributions were negligible.

 

[Simplexity]

Uh, yeah, it was. That's why I took pains to point out ahead of time that I thought you had no basis for your prediction even if it turned out to be correct. This falls under "even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes". Besides, a single and two walks isn't really killing it. Group effort by the Dodgers...Manny's contributions were negligible.

See thats the key there. Hes gotta have that approach against the REST of the dodgers lineup and it is up to them to take advantage, which I think they will. Manny on the other hand is Insanely good in the post season, Absurd. He also kills absolutely kills Moyer so it is going to be a very difficult task to maneuver around the rest of the lineup and also face Manny. When you get down to it though, I can almost guarantee you that the dodgers will score at least 5 or 6 runs against Moyer. Hes a Joke.

Hmmm......... Yea you're right that wasn't my point in the first place.

Oh and when your clean up hitter gets on base all 4 times. I would consider that a success. But what do I know maybe thats just a wild illogical guess that makes me look like a genius.

And I could quote more of what I said but I thought that would suffice.

 

[pure_mercury]

Hmmm......... Yea you're right that wasn't my point in the first place.

Oh and when your clean up hitter gets on base all 4 times. I would consider that a success. But what do I know maybe thats just a wild illogical guess that makes me look like a genius.

And I could quote more of what I said but I thought that would suffice.

And I predicted a Dodgers victory yesterday.

 

[pure_mercury]

NLCS hero Matt Stairs???

 

[EffEmDoubleyou]

And I predicted a Dodgers victory yesterday.

As did I.

Kuroda seems to have the Phils' number, so my guess is that the Dodgers will win Game 3, the Phils and Blanton take Game 4 with Lowe on short rest, and then Hamels finishes them off in Game 5 against a shellshocked Billingsley.

 

[Simplexity]

I wasn't arguing necessarily whether or not they would win or lose, more that Moyer was overrated and more a product of the Nl and would get beat decidedly. Also that it would essentially come down to how the rest of the dodgers hit(I postulated that they would), because knowing Manny's #'s he wouldn't get pitched to.

^That was the crux of my argument, which apparently didn't have a leg of logic to stand on. I just find it odd that the wild hunch or provocative statements proved to be eerily accurate.

 

[pure_mercury]

I wasn't arguing necessarily whether or not they would win or lose, more that Moyer was overrated and more a product of the Nl and would get beat decidedly. Also that it would essentially come down to how the rest of the dodgers hit(I postulated that they would), because knowing Manny's #'s he wouldn't get pitched to.

I still don't know why Manny has gotten so many pitches in this series. That is somewhat insane. Still, I don't think Moyer is "overrated," so much as "old and vulnerable to patient hitters."

 

[nomadic]

man... i wish the la fan's didn't yell "phillie's suck" in the 6th inning...

philly doesn't seem like a typical nyc/boston type of city...

anyways... i think there's a pretty good chance billingsley will CHOKE big time on wed.

I just hope torre pulls him out in time.

the fatal mistake torre had in game 3 was in pulling hong chi kuo when he was pretty hot.

if we pull billingsley in time on wed, then we got a chance... im not worried about kuroda in philly...

then lowe might be able to take a game 7 into the 4th inning... and then... who knows what will happen...

 

[pure_mercury]

man... i wish the la fan's didn't yell "phillie's suck" in the 6th inning...

philly doesn't seem like a typical nyc/boston type of city...

Don't feel too bad. We yell WAY worse things in Philadelphia. We genuinely dislike the other team, always. L.A. is actually very low on the totem pole of places we hate, since it's so far away and it doesn't have an NFL team currently.

BTW, what is a typical "nyc/boston type of city?"

 

[Lateralus]

I wasn't arguing necessarily whether or not they would win or lose, more that Moyer was overrated and more a product of the Nl and would get beat decidedly. Also that it would essentially come down to how the rest of the dodgers hit(I postulated that they would), because knowing Manny's #'s he wouldn't get pitched to.

So you're another one of those AL superiority complex people. Got it.

 

[nomadic]

Don't feel too bad. We yell WAY worse things in Philadelphia. We genuinely dislike the other team, always. L.A. is actually very low on the totem pole of places we hate, since it's so far away and it doesn't have an NFL team currently.

BTW, what is a typical "nyc/boston type of city?"

LOL its just that philly seems one of those teams that love the "comeback", and they thrive off the trashtalking...

u should see how the LA fans would have reacted to the red sox... LOL

something about philly seems different. at least the crowd... maybe its cus of that movie "Rocky" hehe

 

[EffEmDoubleyou]

I wasn't arguing necessarily whether or not they would win or lose, more that Moyer was overrated and more a product of the Nl and would get beat decidedly.

I guess what I found confusing about your prediction is that he was pitching against an NL team

If this were a World Series game and Moyer were facing an AL team, this would be an astute observation...but the Dodgers are in the NL. So being "a product of the NL" is moot. It's not like he racked up his wins in triple A and he's now pitching against better competition...he's still facing the same level of competition he accumulated those gaudy stats against.

 

[Simplexity]

My point is lineups in the NL are consistently worse than comparable AL teams. Manny's impact on the dodgers lineup is massive. Last time I checked before he was traded to the dodgers their leading hr hitter had like 13 homeruns. Ohh and I did watch moyer for a decent part of his career in the AL, where he was decidedly below average against decent offenses...like I don't know the redsox WITH Manny. 3.71 in the NL is most definitely not gaudy by the way. without looking at the stats the top 20 pitchers in the AL i'm sure bested that mark in a much tougher league and division(hallady, lester, matsuzaka, kazmir, garza, etc...)

 

[Simplexity]

So you're another one of those AL superiority complex people. Got it.

I watched moyer pitch in the AL and would salivate every time the redsox got to face him. Allthough I do infact hold that title I don't think it applies in this case.

Anyways seriously I was on point with EVERYTHING I said even had the runs down, and my arguments played out in the game. I really wasn't flaming. I just find it funny when people blindly follow stats and don't really pay attention to how they are compiled.